Bound for the West: Armenia is enhancing its interaction with the USA at the level of defense ministries and security agencies

The current military and political situation in the South Caucasus is characterized by the progressive ramp-up of the contacts between the leaders of the Republic of Armenia (RA) and the collective West, including contacts at the level of the defense ministries and security agencies.

American-Armenian «friendship»

On 17 November 2022, a group of high-ranking American military servants headed by Daniel Lasika, Major General, Strategy, Planning and Policy Director of the US European Command, arrived to Yerevan. In the Armenian capital the Pentagon representatives had negotiations with Suren Papikyan, the RA Minister of Defense. According to the Ministry Press Relations, «the issues of bilateral cooperation in the sphere of defense were discussed at the negotiations». [1]

It is noteworthy that in early September Suren Papikyan was in the US with a working visit, and shortly before the arrival of the American delegation to Yerevan the Head of the Defense Ministry of Armenia (who has no professional military education) made an ambiguous statement about unviability of the national military school, which is understood by the Minister as «conventionally Soviet» (Russian). «We understand that our national [Armenian] military school, based on the old Soviet Army standards, once again is demonstrating its complete unviability», the Armenian Defense Minister emphasized. «This is the reality; we need to recognize it and make adequate decisions. We need to do everything to make an Armenian soldier understand what a modern was is, and to be capable of fighting a modern battle. What arms we shall take on board and from whom, how we shall adjust to modern requirements, and what hybrid situation we get as a result – this is a matter of time. But I can assure you that we already launched this process in the Armenian military forces». [2]

In our opinion, a difficult political discussion is still underway in Armenia on searching for the guilty for the defeat in the Second Karabakh War. In this discussion, the factor of the USSR, which terminated its existence as a geopolitical reality and the entity under international law back 30 years ago, and the veiled criticism of Russia is used by the ruling elites to set-off the public eye from their own errors. In addition, against the background of the expected growth of Armenian military expenditures (by 50% in 2023) we can see obvious intensification of the struggle between various groups inside the Armenian establishment for the right to use the allocated funds and to coordinate the flows of imported arms.

Against this background, the USA are playing their own game in Armenia using the lobbyists in the power bodies and influence networks of numerous NGOs and media, trying to cash in the patriotic sentiment in the Armenian society. Their objective is to remove the RA out of the Russian orbit, utilize the Armenian factor to destabilize CSTO and EAEU, to hamper the operation of the North-South International Transport Corridor (ITC) and to use Armenia as an additional platform for political pressure on Iran.

Reasons underpinning the ambiguous actions by Suren Papikyan

Papikyan’s statements about the «unviability of the Russian (Soviet) military school» quite logically continue the last-year’s reasoning by Nikol Pashinyan, who responded to the criticism of Serge Sargsyan, the ex-President of Armenia, about untimely use of Iskander tactical missile systems during the Second Karabakh War by blaming these missiles of being «not fit for use» and «not exploding» because they are «the weapons of 1980s». [3]

At the same time, the Armenian Prime-Minister did not indicate, where exactly, when and in which circumstances these missiles did not work. Neither he did comment on the fact that the «defective» missile systems by the moment of their combat use have been in service in Armenian military forces for about four years, respectively, the conditions of their storage and use were fully under the supervision of the Armenian side.

It looks that by promoting such position the Armenian ruling establishment headed by Nikol Pashinyan strives for «killing two birds with one stone» – both in the domestic field and at the external contour. On one hand, the arguments about the allegedly poor efficiency of Russian weapons compensate for the criticism of errors in the military command, disorganization of the civil sector and the managerial short-sightedness of the Armenian leaders, which fully manifested itself in the critical conditions. On the other side, it provides radical factual basis for the military and political rapprochement with the West, purchasing foreign machines and armament for the needs of the Armenian military forces.

At the same time, many Armenian politicians and experts looking through the lens of national interests are overall rather critical of the Armenian authorities’ actions, when the factor of losing the Second Karabakh War is used for changing the focus in the sphere of security, war science, training of specialists and military and technical cooperation. In particular, Tigran Abramyan, the member of the Parliamentary Commission on Defense representing the opposition group «I have the honor», emphasized that the cause of the defeat, of human and territorial losses of Armenia resulting from the 44-day warfare and the follow-up combat action was not in the model itself, but in the failure of the security policy of the Armenian authorities. The key problems are in management, in provision of communications. There are also significant infrastructure problems on the front lines. And we are talking here about , the Parliament member stated.

Commenting the visit of Suren Papikyan, the Armenian Defense Minister, to the USA David Arutyunov, the political analyst, noted that «the objectives of this visit were not quite clear – were they military ones or political ones? In any case, based on the press-releases, no serious and far-reaching agreements were achieved». Besides, in the opinion of Arutyunov, «serious military and technical cooperation with the West was and remains impossible for Armenia due to huge costs, for which Yerevan simply is not ready. Armenia does not have the funds required for purchasing a broad range of the necessary weapons in the West». [4]

In his turn, Grigory Balasanyan, another political analyst, characterized Papikyan’s visit to the USA as «a dangerous and useless step». In his opinion, «the authorities understand very well the potential negative implications of their overtures with the West, but they either have doubts about the decisiveness of the strategic partner, or have some third-party assurance that the reaction of the strategic partner will not be painful for Armenia». In addition, Balasanyan believes that such actions could be caused by Papikyan’s insufficient experience in military and political issues or could «result from advice by centers and officials». [5]

In essence, the Armenian expert community has developed a common opinion that «anti-Soviet» (anti-Russian) statements of Papikyan, the voyages of the Armenian Defense Minister to the USA and the response visits of the American military delegations to Armenia, which are taking place in the context of unprecedented escalation in the relations between the West and the Russian Federation – the main ally of Yerevan in the sphere of security, happen because of «some third-party representations» or under the influence of «the advice coming from some centers». Hence, this policy is viewed as dependent and implemented in the interests of external forces contrary to the Armenian national interests.

In this connection, it is necessary to remind here about Armen Grigoryan, the head of the Security Council, who was the director of election programs of the Armenian Transparency International* branch before 2018, who is accused by his critics of belonging to the Soros Foundation structures and of performing the «contact function» between Pashinyan’s team and the USA intelligence agencies. [6] It deserves noting that Armen Grigoryan maintains contacts with William Burns, the CIA Director, and the visits of high-ranking American emissaries to  Yerevan  became more frequent against the background of plans for massive reform of the entire security/defense/law enforcement system of Armenia.

Some aspects of Armenian army reform

In this context, the agenda of Suren Papikyan’s recent visit to the United States is pretty demonstrative, and analyzing the information in the public domain allows for not agreeing with the conclusions by the Armenian political analysts about the «usefulness» of the visit and «lack of results». In particular, the head of the Armenian Defense Ministry visited the training center in  the state of Kansas and the National Defense University of the USA, which points to the fact of Yerevan and the American party being focused on cooperation in the sphere of military education and training, hence – on training the Armenian military personnel. It is no secret that exporting the training services and academic mobility are the key elements of the so-called «soft power», when foreigners engaged in such projects become subjects of intellectual and psychological impact, made loyal to the country providing the training and have their mindsets and values transformed.

The interaction between Armenia and the USA in training military personnel is not Papikyan’s «know-how», he received it as a legacy of the «complementary policy» of Serge Sargsyan’s government. The already mentioned political analyst David Arutyunov fairly emphasizes that «the military education sphere has traditionally been one of the key elements of cooperation between Armenia and the West (the USA, individual European states or NATO). Training, military code of conduct, healthcare, peace-making activities – here are the main components of such cooperation».

It is necessary to emphasize that David Tonoyan, the Papikyan’s predecessor at the position of the Defense Minister (currently he is under arrest due to the embezzlement criminal case initiated against him) in March 2019 also paid a visit to the USA with a similar agenda. Of course, based on the above, quite a reasonable question arises: what unviability of the «Soviet school» Suren Papikyan is talking about, when many specialists of the Armenian military forces get trained and re-trained in the USA? But evaluating the planned Armenian army reform is even more interesting.

In particular, in addition to the service pay increase, the plan is to conduct the re-classification of the Armenian military servants within the next three years, and the RA government plans to allocate circa AMD 66 bn (over USD 165 mln) for these purposes. There is an opinion that Papikyan’s words about «the Soviet military school» should be interpreted in the context of such re-classification. The complete substitution of the pro-Russian military specialist with the specialists trained in the USA cannot be excluded – with all the respective implications.

As for the plans to re-equip the Armenian army, it is already known about contracts with India, where Yerevan intends to buy a big-size batch of armament and ammunition for almost USD 250 mln. In particular, according to the available data, it will be counter-battery radars, rocket grenade launchers, artillery systems. In mid-October of this year, Suren Papikyan visited New Delhi, where he had talks with Rajnath Singh, the head of the Defense Ministry of India, and the parties confirmed their commitment to continue their military and technical cooperation. [7]

Conclusions

The reform of the Armenian security/defense/law enforcement system, of which the national army is the key element, is taking place in the context of the growing activity of these circles of Armenian establishment in contacting the representatives of Pentagon and Langley. To cover their own managerial errors, the widespread corruption in the Armenian army and to distract the attention of the society towards a non-existing problem, the RA leaders including the Defense Minister Suren Papikyan allow for inappropriate rhetoric against the Soviet military system, which is currently a historic legacy formed with active participation of Armenian compatriots. In particular, the distinguished son of Armenian nation Ivan Bargramyan, the Marshal of the Soviet Union, was a prominent representative of this captainship.

The objective of the USA in this case is enhancing its influence in Armenia at minimal financial costs, which is proven by their focus on Armenian military specialists training. In this case, Washington does not bear any costs to assure the RA security (this complicated issue is still within the competence of Russia and CSTO), however, it gets a layer of loyal officers and generals in the military managing bodies and in other spheres, where Armenian specialists may be seconded upon receiving training in the US.

In the next three years the re-classification of Armenian military servants is planned, which may result in a threat of seizing the military management by people having direct contacts with the Western intelligence agencies or having the pro-Western beliefs and values. In the defense/security system of Armenia the influence of people from the so-called «non-governmental sector» consisting of NGOs linked with the Soros Foundation* and other foreign institutions is currently unjustifiably big and represents a threat to both the national security of Armenia and to Yerevan’s commitments in CSTO and EAEU.

The multi-year US-based military training projects did not bring any practical results. The defeat of Armenia in the Second Karabakh War was caused by higher level of operating command and technology intensiveness demonstrated by the Azerbaijani army, but also in lack of sufficient managerial competencies of Nikol Pashinyan’s team, which became obvious in the acute period of combat actions. In addition, the criminal case of D. Tonoyan, the ex-Minister of Defense in charge of the military operations during the war and currently accused of major embezzlement is quite illustrative of the situation in the Armenian army and the management of the defense/security forces.

In the light of the revealed managerial problems, such factors as training military specialists in Russia, in the US or in any other country, and equally the sources of weapons and ammunition look really secondary issues. History knows the examples, when the armies àðìèè, equipped with the state-of-the-art technologies turned out absolutely uncapable of solving their battle mission tasks due to the crisis of management, chaos and passivity of the ruling class.

At the same time, the planned increase of the military expenditure of Armenia by more than 50% in 2023 combined with lack of progress in peaceful negotiations with Azerbaijan and fulfilling the country’s commitments under the Trilateral Statement dated 10 November 2020 and the follow-up agreements indicates the revanchist sentiment of Yerevan, which is fraught with the security problems in the South Caucasus and respectively – with geopolitical risks for the Russian Federation.

*The Soros Foundation is designated an undesirable organization in Russia in accordance with the Decision of the RF General Prosecutor’s Office; Russian branch of Transparency International in included into the list of NGOs – foreign agents.