In a trilateral format. At the first summit with participation of the Presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan priority was given to energy issues.

In Turkmenbashi on the Caspian Sea coast the first summit was held with participation of the Presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The key issues on the agenda were cooperation in the sphere of energy, trade and transport. As the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan noted: «If we can implement energy initiatives today, it will bring big dividends in the future». Ankara is interested in growing rapport with Ashgabat and in the supplies of Turkmenian «blue flame natural gas» in order to create a regional gas hub in the Turkish territory.

Ankara's expectations

When departing for Turkmenistan Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan stated that one of the priority areas of a dialogue with Baku and Ashgabat is energy issues: «I hope that the Turkmenian gas will soon begin to come to Turkey through the Caspian Sea». According to him, the Turkmenian side «shows great interest to this project».

The idea to create the biggest gas hub in the territory of Turkey belongs to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. After explosions had occurred at the Nord Stream pipelines at the end of September, Russia, according to Putin, «could transfer its gas to the Black Sea region and make it the main route for Russian gas supplies to Europe by creating in Turkey the biggest gas hub for Europe». He underscored that implementation of this project is possible, «if, of course, our partners are interested in this», having in mind in the first place European buyers.

The Turkish leader who next year intends to run for Turkish presidency obviously liked the idea to create a gas hub. Erdoǧan needs tangible victories in foreign affairs, especially after Turkmenistan had not passed, as announced, from the observer status to the full-fledge member of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) at the summit held in Samarkand. Presently, OTS members are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Turkey and Uzbekistan. Hungary and Turkmenistan have an observer status. The establishment of a gas hub could be one of such victories for Erdoǧan.

Erdoǧan insists

The summit in Turkmenbashi had been preceded by bilateral negotiations in Ankara, Baku, Ashgabat and Moscow. The parties discussed possible supplies of Turkmenian gas to Europe. Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan even insisted that the work should begin immediately.

Several biggest pipelines run through the territory of Turkey: TANAP (capacity 16 bn cu m per year), TurkStream (31.5 bn cu m), Blue Stream (16-17 bn cu m with possible increase to 32 bn cu m), Balkan Stream (part of TurkStream with capacity 15.8 bn cu m). With this, the TANAP pipeline acquires exceptional importance. After successful support to Azerbaijan in its military confrontation with Armenia Turkey virtually gained exceptional conditions and, possibly, an exclusive price for Azerbaijani gas, which may entail the revision of prices for the Russian gas. Turkish companies reselling Russian and Azerbaijani gas have close connections with the government and, therefore, support the ideas voiced by President Erdoǧan. The next stage may be the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan with its connection to the TANAP in the Azerbaijani territory.

After Europe had decided to get rid of the Russian gas the chances for the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline have grown. Russia and Iran speaking out against laying a pipeline over the bottom of the Caspian Sea are unable to oppose this project today. The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea signed in 2018 grants the right to agree upon the pipeline laying procedure with the neighbors which will hardly have any objections. The remaining little thing to do is to set up a consortium that would undertake to cover all financial issues. It is logical to assume that after the gas price in Europe has grown dramatically the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project may become cost-effective. All boils down to marketing. It is easy to declare a political decision, but it is worthless without economic guarantees. The sad fate of the Nabucco pipeline indicates that it is possible to adopt declarations, organize meetings, but when there are no interested commercial entities it is hardly feasible. Economic guarantees are necessary.

It may happen that through the efforts of the USA and EU interested parties represented by the commercial entities will appear. In particular, Washington considers possible options of support to the supplies of the Turkmenian gas to Azerbaijan. This was reported by Karen Donfried, assistant state secretary for European and Eurasian affairs. According to her, Azerbaijan plays and important role in diversification and security of energy supply in the region. «We have been closely cooperating with Azerbaijan in the field of energy security. The USA decisively supports the Southern Gas Corridor. It facilitates diversification of routes and sources of import of energy products to Europe, which is now a priority in the US policy. The USA examines possible ways to support supplies of Turkmenian gas to Azerbaijan in order to increase accessibility of non-Russian natural gas», said she.

It will be recalled that in June 2022 the EU signed an agreement with Baku on doubling the import of Azerbaijani natural gas up to 20 bn cu m per year as a minimum by 2027. Therefore, Ankara supported by the USA and EU most likely will ram through the construction of a new pipeline which will automatically fall under Turkish control. This means that Turkey will become not just a gas hub, but a transit gas superpower. By thus establishing control over the gas flows of the two countries Ankara will be in a position to participate in forming world prices for this energy source. Besides, Turkey may act as a guarantor for the new pipeline.

Facts

For the time being Erdoǧan failed to forcefully embrace the fraternal Turkmenistan. Ashgabat which needs the inflow of investments and pursues the policy of energy diversification abstained from signing an agreement on the export of its gas to Europe. But, as the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said: «On the issue of natural gas supplies from Turkmenistan we are prepared to take joint steps for the benefit of three countries and made a decision to set up a working group that will work on it». «The memorandum of understanding on energy cooperation signed during the summit creates the necessary framework», said Çavuşoğlu. However, he did not answer the question in what volumes the Turkmenian gas will be transported to Europe, on what terms and to what extent the current infrastructure will allow pumping through additional volumes of gas.

In Ankara possible transportation of the Turkmenian gas on gas carrier vessels to Azerbaijan was discussed to be then pumped into the pipelines of the Southern Gas Corridor the passing capacity of which is 31 bn cu m. Of this volume 20 bn cu m will be Azerbaijani gas and about 10 bn cu m will be the Turkmenian gas. These are approximate calculations made by exports.

Negotiations between Berdymukhamedov and Aliyev

The situation became somewhat clear after bilateral negotiations between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan Ilham Aliyev and Serdar Berdymukhamedov. They discussed the prospects of extending energy security cooperation, in particular, the possibility of making natural gas supplies from the Caspian region to Europe, as well as the construction of modern transport and transit infrastructure with regard to the advantageous geographic location of the neighboring countries having tremendous hydrocarbon resources.

According to the Turkmenian leader, a significant event in January last year was signing a memorandum of understanding between the Governments of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on the joint development of hydrocarbon resources of the Dostluk (Friendship) field in the Caspian Sea. In his opinion, this is an absolutely new milestone in bilateral energy cooperation in the Caspian region that opened new prospects for joint work on a solid international legal basis. According to various assessments, oil reserves in the said field are estimated at about 60 million tons, natural gas reserves about 100 bn cu m.

Experts do not exclude the option of installing interconnectors joining the Turkmenian and Azerbaijani gas-fields. But in this case gas supplies in big volumes are out of the question. The common pipe will receive relatively small volumes of the Turkmenian gas.

According to the Turkmenian expert Serdar Aitakov, Ankara could not offer the Turkmenian side conditions that would surely guarantee the inflow of investments and technologies, guarantees of purchases of the Turkmenian gas by European consumers and in volumes and at the prices that would be attractive to Ashgabat, too. «The Turkmenian side did not want to sign a declarative document that would deprive the Turkmenian side of the political initiative and independence in favour of President Erdoǧan [which is obvious], too», the expert said. In his words, according to the old Turkmenian tradition, if the word «historic» is not used in the texts of the final documents and is not pronounced by the participants of such meetings, the attitude to all that had happened should be the same – nothing «historic» took place.

Too early to put a full stop

Upon return to Ankara Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan disclosed the details of understandings in Turkmenbashi. «Speaking about whether Turkmenistan can sell its natural gas directly to the EU or not, Turkey, of course, is an important node for selling the Turkmenian gas to Europe», Erdoǧan explained. The Turkish President said that he gave instructions to hammer out a mechanism for supplying the Turkmenian gas to the European market via Turkey. A meeting of energy ministers of the three countries was planned. President Erdoǧan announced a visit by the President of Turkmenistan to Turkey in January 2023: «Plans are made to sign an agreement on gas supplies».

What was signed

Based upon the summit results, a joint statement by the leaders of the three Turkic-speaking countries was adopted and a package of documents was signed. In particular, a trilateral agreement between the governments on trade and economic cooperation, a framework program on partnership in the sphere of education, science and culture for the years 2023-2025, as well as a memorandum on establishing a joint consultative commission  on customs cooperation. Besides, memorandums on further development of cooperation in the field of transport and energy were signed. As for Turkmenistan’s joining the OTS, nothing was said at the summit of the three countries. For the time being Ashgabat adheres to the policy of neutrality.

Nevertheless, OTS Secretary-General Kubanychek Omuraliev positively assessed the understandings reached between the leaders of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan: «Documents signed in such spheres as trade, culture, energy and transport will facilitate further strengthening of comprehensive cooperation within the framework of OTS and increasing of interaction».

Transport corridors

Transport corridors are one of the promising areas in which Ashgabat is cooperating and is already receiving bonuses. Quite attractive for Turkmenistan is the Trans-Caspian Transport Route. The eastern branch of the International Transport Corridor «North – South» has already become a reality. The task is to increase capabilities of cargo passage via this route, to increase passing capacity of border crossing points, in particular, in Serakhs on the Turkmenian-Iranian border.

The Turkish leader underlined the significance of transport corridors, including Lapis-Lazuli (the Lapis Lazuli corridor is a direct trade route from Asia to Europe and linking five countries) as a factor contributing to regional security.

Azerbaijan intends to invest additional 100 million dollars into the already existing railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars in order to increase its passing capacity from 1 million tons to 5 million tons. Besides, as Ilham Aliyev said at the summit, in 2024 construction of the railway and motor road in the Zangezur corridor will be completed.

At the end of the meeting Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan drew attention to Ankara’s mediatory efforts on Ukraine, which made it possible to exchange prisoners and opened the way to the «grain deal». In his words, the «grain deal» and exchange of prisoners proved that diplomatic steps may open the way to peace (between RF and Ukraine). «My dialogue with Presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky continues in this direction. I hope that we shall be able to reach understanding on ceasefire, which will open the way to long-lasting peace», Erdoǧan stated.