President Tokayev Gives World a Chance

In late May, 2024 Euronews published a conceptual article by President Tokayev of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) under the title Middle Powers have the Power to Save Multilateralism. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, an experienced diplomat, states that the current geopolitical turbulence and persistent conflict call for multilateral solutions. According to the Kazakhstan leader, wars today appear to be beyond resolution, «the conflict in Ukraine has created a diplomatic stalemate, the ongoing situation in Gaza is an epic humanitarian disaster, while tensions in the Indo-Pacific are fueling brinkmanship at the expense of a more constructive engagement». The structures designed to foster international consensus, including the United Nations Organization (UNO), are facing gridlock and paralysis. Solution to the stalemate situation can be offered by middle powers like Kazakhstan, which emerge as pivotal players to ensure greater stability, peace and development.

Key Messages of Tokayev’s Article

The original text of Tokayev’s article was published in English under the title «Middle powers have the power to save multilateralism» [1]. As a reminder, multilateralism is a model of inter-state relations based on multilateral agreements which enable each country to benefit from privileges in its interactions with partners. And today this vital principle of international policy becomes ineffective and is rapidly devalued. Amidst the global discord, the big powers – the world’s economic and political behemoths – are increasingly unable to work together, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev points out. The use of veto power by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council often results in a deadlock, preventing decisive actions against global crises and leading to repeat scenarios where unilateralism is favored over collective action. This further erodes the spirit of multilateralism and undermines the credibility of international institutions, Tokayev observes.

Now that the major powers are increasingly unwilling to trust the multilateral processes and smaller countries lack the necessary influence, it is the duty of middle powers to lead the international dialogue, the RK President believes. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev argues that, «while we may not wield the same global influence as the world’s superpowers, nations like ours [Kazakhstan] possess the economic strength, military capabilities, and, perhaps more importantly, political will and diplomatic acumen necessary to exert significant sway in the global arena on issues ranging from food and energy security, green transition, and IT to the sustainability of supply chains». «Unburdened by the complexities of superpower politics, our agility enables us to navigate intricate diplomatic terrains and carve paths toward compromise and reconciliation», President of Kazakhstan emphasizes.

The next section of the Kazakhstan leader’s article is entitled «Peacemaking and sustainable goals on the agenda». It says that Kazakhstan has always been deeply committed to multilateralism, continuously seeking new forums for international dialogue and collaborative action. Here comes an important excerpt from Tokayev’s article: «The world has overcome divisions in the past and can do so again through diplomacy and dialogue. We are also unafraid to offer our help in seeking resolutions to protracted conflicts. This is exemplified by our recent commitment to host peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia – an effort that underscores our belief in the power of middle powers to drive dialogue and promote peace». Kassym-Jomart Tokayev calls on all international partners to join Kazakhstan's efforts in reinforcing multilateralism. «Countries like Kazakhstan must step forward and assert our role not just as participants but as responsible managers in the global arena», President Tokayev concludes.

The «Middle Powers» Concept

The term «middle power» entered the modern international politics vocabulary as a product of discussions around United Nations design in 1944-1945 [2]. That was the time when a number of medium-size states, including Canada, Australia, Brazil and a few others, insisted that special rights be given in the UN organization to countries that can make a tangible contribution to international security, hold an important position in their respective regions, or possess significant economic capacity and resources. Note that the same arguments for an increasing role of middle powers were given by the President of Kazakhstan in his recent article. As can be seen, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev knows the subject very well: when being Deputy UN Secretary-General, he supervised peacekeeping and disarmament programs, which means he has rich experience and solid knowledge of these matters. In the post-war years, the proposals on UN organizational principles put forward on behalf of the British dominions Canada and Australia were rejected. Preference at that time was not given to the functional (extent of contribution to common goals), but rather a strictly geographical (regional representation) principle of election of UN Security Council non-permanent members.

As an outcome, the main decisions within the United Nations have been driven by a narrow circle of major powers, essentially limited to the five members of the UN Security Council, or members of the official «nuclear club». But then, what about India, a country with a billion-plus population which also possesses nuclear weapons? What about other influential countries like Israel and Germany? This prompted many growing regional powers such as Türkiye to demand a UN reform saying out loud that «the world is bigger than five» [3]. It turns out that after the Second World War the world migrated to an undemocratic system in which (almost exactly as Orwell put it) some countries are «more equal than others». In this environment all small and middle countries are left with the unenviable option of acceding to one of the few global centers of power or geopolitical blocks, and then act in the wake of their policy. It would seem that the modern world is ruled by the old concept of German geopolitist Karl Haushofer, who regarded middle powers «incapable of pursuing independent foreign policy» and hence predicted that smaller states will be inevitably assimilated by great world powers.

However life itself proved this dire prediction by the Third Reich geopolitics guru to be wrong. In reality, middle powers in the modern global world not only succeed in surviving but are effectively developing. Moreover, their role on the international arena keeps increasing from year to year. The importance of middle powers will only increase over the next decade; they totally reshape the landscape of the world geopolitics because the once-superpowers either lost their might or locked themselves in a military and political clinch. Great powers must create coalitions with medium and small ones to achieve progress on any issue, Miras Zhienbaev, expert at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of RK, rightfully points out. In his monograph Widening the Scope: How Middle Powers are Changing Liberal Institutionalism, the Kazakhstan scholar argues that middle powers have historically played the role of stabilizers of the world order, supporting its fundamental principles and restraining the erosion of norms [4].

This important point is developed by President Tokayev in his recent article: «Moreover, middle powers are deeply committed to upholding the multilateral system. Unlike superpowers, which may feel constrained by these institutions as they chart their own course, our countries rely on these essential global mechanisms to resolve disputes, safeguard our territorial integrity, and address collective challenges ranging from climate change to pandemics». As we can see, the very logic of global development implies a stronger role for medium-sized countries, which constitute a majority in today’s world. Undoubtedly it makes every sense for them to unite – if only to be able to speak loudly and in unison in global politics. So far, the overwhelming part of middle powers belong to the group within the international community known as the «silent majority». As an internationally renowned politician, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev today highlights the international policy problems openly and without fear, speaking for and on behalf of the global majority.

Continuity of Kazakhstan’s Diplomacy

In his article the leader of Kazakhstan very appropriately outlined the main trends of our century and the key problems of international relations. The leading role of middle powers should consist in taking active steps towards consensus-based strategic decision making. Over the past year alone, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev raised the issue of middle powers several times – at the Astana International Forum, speaking from the UN General Assembly podium, at the Belt and Road forum, and during his official visits to Germany and Singapore. President of Kazakhstan gave a lecture in Singapore under the title that says it all: «Kazakhstan and the Role of Middle Powers: Promoting Security, Stability and Sustainable Development». [5]. President Tokayev keeps reiterating that medium-size countries like Kazakhstan «must step forward together with renewed vigor and assert our role not just as participants but as responsible managers in the global arena».

The need to consider the opinion and position of middle powers is increasingly recognized all over the world. Early in 2024 the Berlin-based foundation Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) issued a 100-page collection of papers under a self-explanatory title «Middle Powers – nfluential Actors in International Politics». For the first time Kazakhstan was listed among the world’s leading «middle powers» (alongside India, Türkiye and Israel). While not having the status of great powers, the «ambitious dozen» for a number of reasons play an increasingly important role on the global stage. It is noteworthy that the European Union began to show increased interest in Kazakhstan after the consequential events in Ukraine and the subsequent aggravation of the global political and military situation. Or, as Tokayev himself diplomatically put it, when «the current geopolitical turbulence undermines the entire global security architecture». Viewed from this angle, the German experts’ decision to include Kazakhstan in the group of middle powers is by no means a political compliment to Astana but rather just a statement of facts [6].

It is important to note that President Tokayev’s focus on the middle powers theme is not made in response to situation changes or at the whim of political fashion. The concept was widely used by Kazakhstan’s diplomacy as far back as 2010 when preparations for the unique Astana summit of OSCE heads of state were underway. The very idea of Kazakhstan's OSCE presidency was based on the strategically correct concept of increasing the weight of middle powers in global geopolitics. From the impartial point of view, middle powers constitute the foundation of the modern world order. Their international significance can be compared to the key role of the middle class which is the basis of democracy and societal stability in nation states. Middle class is universally recognized to be the social basis of market economy and political democracy. When middle class representatives constitute a majority, the state has all the prerequisites for steady development. This, in fact, should also be true of a fair global democracy system [7].

The Architect of the New World

Today’s world has approached a dangerous point – mounting geopolitical instability and the arc of endless conflict can easily escalate into a full-scale Third World War where nuclear weapons will be used. Destruction of basic principles of international relations and progressive devaluation of global diplomacy may entail a collapse of the entire system of international institutions including the UN. As the United Nations becomes increasingly powerless to oppose fist law, it risks repeating the infamous fate of the League of Nations. The policy of continuous raising of stakes and the popular practice of brinkmanship (balancing on the brink of a disaster) throw the world back to the existential Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Afterwards US President John Kennedy described that critical situation in the following way: «I was willing to push the world to the brink of war, so that people would understand how serious it is, but I never thought that so many idiots would be ready to get beyond the brink».

Since the times of cold war, international politics has been a kind of nuclear poker game where the privileged players deal out cards at the table while holding loaded guns to each other’s head. The balance of fear of nuclear weapons provided the foundation of durable peace creating an illusion of safety for the whole planet. Nowadays, however, nuclear weapons have become a routine subject of debate, sometimes even proposed as a necessary means to the attainment of purely tactical goals. An «unwary» generation of political leaders came to the forefront who do not heed the lessons of Hiroshima and the Cuban Missile Crisis. They see the world as a computer game with a «reset» button and spare lives available. The above-cited article by President Tokayev is a reminder to reckless politicians that today the whole world is on the move facing the fatal threat of civilization destruction. Most countries do not want to be uninvolved observers in a suicidal nuclear war. For this solid reason, middle powers today are in the forefront of the reform movement as new peacemakers.

The Republic of Kazakhstan can rightfully fill the role of the moral and actual leader among the cohort of middle powers. First, Astana has an impressive track record of anti-nuclear action. Kazakhstan is a country that voluntarily gave up the possession of nuclear weapons and repeatedly put forward disarmament initiatives. Second, Kazakhstan has been continuously seeking and proposing new forums for international dialogue and collaborative action and has taken active part in peacekeeping operations. Third, the Kazakhstan leadership has the flawless reputation of an «honest broker» and successful moderator speaking in level tones with both the East and the West. Today Kazakhstan’s indisputable moral leadership is augmented by its strong intellectual leadership. President Tokayev keeps sharing a spectrum of new ideas aimed to reset the entire system of international relations.

Reforming the UN structure and decision-making principles is becoming the main goal in international politics, and the next two years are going to be pivotal. As is known, the United Nations will elect a new Secretary-General in 2026; the election will demonstrate whether the UN is capable of taking decisive steps towards reformation or is doomed to fall into oblivion. To date, the short list of candidates only includes little-known international bureaucrats and «compromise» politicians from third world countries. In Poincaré’s apt words, «all of them are only suitable for helplessly throwing up their hands and opening chrysanthemum exhibitions». Carrying out an imminent reform of the UN and its international institutions would take an experienced, strong-willed and resolute politician who is well aware of the organization’s operational mechanisms. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who previously served as Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, is exactly such a fail-proof candidate from the middle powers group.

It appears that Tokayev’s nomination for UN Secretary-General will be supported by all members of UNSC including Russia, and also by a majority of countries of Asia, Europa, Latin America and Africa. The eminent figure of President Tokayev, an experienced diplomat and successful international politician with impeccable reputation, personifies a new phase of international relations and revival of the multilateralism principle. By now, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as an outstanding global politician and diplomat has long overgrown the Kazakhstan and even the post-Soviet geopolitical scale. He is the one who will manage to debottleneck the UN acting as an architect of the new world order. «The task is formidable, but with determination, leadership, and a steadfast commitment to dialogue, we can transform today's challenges into tomorrow's successes. Let us lead the way to an era of multilateral renewal», President of Kazakhstan concludes. In fact, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev gives the world a chance – and we have the right to use this unique chance.