Population of Kazakhstan supported the policy of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during the referendum

Vote of confidence for the President

The national referendum on amendments to the Constitution took place in Kazakhstan on June 5. The citizens had to answer one question: «Do you accept amendments and supplements to the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan as defined in the draft Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan «On amendments and supplements to the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan» published in media on 6 May 2022?». Let us remind here, that the previous referendum took place on 30 August 1995, when the effective Constitution was adopted. What were the reasons for holding a nation-wide referendum after 27 years?

After tragic January events in Kazakhstan and actual removal of Nursultan Nazarbayev from power mechanisms, the authorities of Kazakhstan claimed the need for deep reform. On 16 March 2022, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in his State-of-the-Nation proclaimed the main objectives for the political transformation of the country. His proposed concept of «the new Kazakhstan» is underpinned by the hefty package of reform to turn the country into a presidential republic with strong parliament. In the opinion of Ak-Orda, the main reason for such systemic amendments to the Constitution is «transforming the super-presidential system of power into the  semi-presidential republic».

As per the data announced by the Central Elections Commission (CEC) of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the overall voter turnout was 68.05%. [1] 77.18% of voters supported the amendments and supplements to the Constitution, 18.66% voted against them. Such massive turnout and impressive support evidence the high level of the public support of the President’s reform policy. In effect, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev received a critically important vote of confidence in the context of complex political situation inside the country accompanied by international tension. This opens the way for him to implement the intended reforms, as well as to successful re-election for the second term.

Voting as a single package

The specific feature of this referendum was that Kazakhstan citizens voted for the amendments and supplements as a single package – «for» or «against» all the amendments together. Concurrently, 56 amendments in total were proposed to Kazakhstan Constitution, i.e., the changes covered one third of the total number of articles. Here are some of the most meaningful ones: prohibition for the President and a number of officials to be members of any political party, prohibition for close relatives of the President to take government and public positions, national and regional elections based on the mixed electoral system. There were other amendments pertaining to granting the opportunity to be elected to the parliament at national and regional levels for the non-partisan citizens, as well as re-establishment of the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Experts emphasize the obvious complexity of the proposed package for the average voter, it is difficult to understand the constitutional changes and their interconnections even for skillful lawyer. For example, the proposed amendments include both strategic novelties (abolition of death penalty, establishment of the Constitutional Court) and solely procedural ones (organization of the parliament operations, renaming of the Accounts Committee). At the sometime, the entire process of nation-wide discussion of the Constitutional amendments and the administrative preparation for the referendum were finished just in one month. Moreover, all these processes took place in rather complicated social and economic environment and in the situation of acute international tension.

However, the incumbent head of the state quite consciously assumed certain risk. Tokayev directly linked his political future with referendum based on his strategic perception of the need for his nation-wide legitimization. Politicians and experts held long-lasting argument about whether this form of legitimization was necessary and what were the reasons for such a high pace of reforming the system. Gulmira Ileuova, the sociologist from Kazakhstan, revealed the secret of developing the presidential package of amendments. She is convinced that the proposed reforms and Constitutional amendments are the response to the existing public inquiry within the community of politicians and experts. In her opinion, «having received the mandate from the public based on the referendum outcome as his main resource, the President will be morally entitled for pursuing the policy of returning the country back to the democratic foundations, which sometimes may be a painful process». [2]

This is a very exact and timely comment. Regional experts paid their attention to the words of the incumbent President during briefing at one polling station. Speaking about January events, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized: «We insist that it was a terrorists’ attack targeted at subversion of state power, and that is why we need to hold liable everyone who took part, let them be direct participants, accomplices or instigators. And of course, if they took part in organizing all that. This anti-state action clearly was pre-planned and guided by skilled professionals». By these words, the President decisively rejected the opposite version of the alleged «popular revolt» circulated by numerous liberal and national populist media. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev considers those events not as spontaneous uprising due to the surge of gas prices, but as organized conspiracy and terrorism. This evidences his determination to go on with personnel purges and to complete the investigation of the coup d’état attempt regardless of ranks and positions.

Life without Elbasy

The Constitutional referendum noticeably changes the customary system of government built during the three decades of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s rein. Just recently they talked about the duumvirate system in Ak-Orda whispering that Tokayev ruled in the shadow of Nazarbayev. Now everything is different – the incumbent President was successful in drastic strengthening of his position after January turmoil. Then President Tokayev applied to CSTO assistance at the most critical moment, and after suppressing the protests deprived Nazarbayev and his most influential cronies of the remainders of power. Thus, three sons-in-law of the First President of Kazakhstan, his nephew and other relatives were dismissed from their positions.

A year ago, Nursultan Nazarbayev already quit the powers of the Chairman of the Assembly of Nations of Kazakhstan, and during January 2022 turmoil – the key position of the Security Council Chairman. But that already was a tardy act, as his aspiration to be very much in evidence and in power became his historic mistake. Gradually, Nazarbayev from a charismatic figure became a toxic person, which both the top and the lower circles try to disengage from. This is why one of the key amendments to the Constitution is dedicated to the status of the First President of Kazakhstan. Based on the referendum outcome, Nursultan Nazarbayev lost the majority of his personal privileges and the status of Elbasy (the Leader of the Nation). In the aftermath, his legal status will be regulated by the existing provision on ex-presidents, which provides for the honor and dignity protection right, as well as the right for pension, personal transport and security guards.

After January, Nursultan Nazarbayev kept very low profile, but right before the referendum he gave a wide-ranging interview. On the telephone, Nazarbayev promised to support Tokayev and informed that during the period of retirement he intends to be engaged in a global nuclear security effort. [3] On the voting day, the ex-president was spotted at the polling station, but he refrained from any political statements. Kazakhstan political analysts believe Nursultan Nazarbayev to be the main loser in the inside-elite encounter with his successor Kassym-Jomart Tokaye in January 2022. In fact, the First President of Kazakhstan to some extent copied the tragis historic path of his iconic political actor – the French President Charles de Gaulle.

National voting specifics

From the very beginning, Kazakhstan authorities set very high standards for Constitutional plebiscite. In addition to the aggressive deadlines in complicated environment of personnel purges, another important reference point was established. It was assumed that the referendum had to be transparent to the maximum extent, without any administrative violations, carousel voting and jukes. The pro-government experts claimed that the proposed Constitutional amendments would get very high results (turnout of at least 70%, and at least 90% support). And we should say frankly, that Kazakhstan government machine came through with the set target.

Thus, according to the official data, the overall turnout made 68% – these results are well in line with the sociologists’ forecasts, which estimated it to be at 65-70%. As for the support indicator, it turned out a bit lower than 90% expected by Ak-Orda. Daniyar Ashimbayev, the political analyst from Kazakhstan, makes the following conclusion in his Telegram: «Even though the Constitutional reform is targeted «at all the good things against all the bad things», the problem of protests is till very serious». He concludes: «20% of votes «against» are «booked» as the niche for opposition, and about two dozens of new parties that are currently being established may go after that niche during the next election campaigns, even though they have not brought anything to the table yet».

The second unexpected feature of the referendum has to do with the turnout in the regions. The Southern regions demonstrated the highest turnout: 80.66% in Turkestan Region, 79.89% in Kyzyl-Orda Region, according to CEC. The lowest turnout was registered in both capital cities: 33.30% in Almaty and 57.06% in Nur-Sultan. The regions with the biggest January turmoil rates also demonstrated very low turnout: 58.06%, 61.19% and 67.68% in Aktyubinsk, Mangistau and Atyrau Regions respectively. [4] The situation is paradoxical: Tokayev’s liberal political reforms received the highest support in the most archaic rural areas, while the sophisticated voters in the capital cities and the rebelious regions, for which the authorities were planning their reforms, turned out to be rather indiffirent.

Here is the explanation by Kazakhstan experts. In the South, «the disciplined, but grounded at heart electoral behavior still dominates» (in the words of the sociologist G. Ileuova). «Low results in Almaty are explained both by historic traditions and by the depressive syndrome in the aftermath of January tragedy», – Marat Shibutov writes in his Telegram. All this regional discordance appears to be an alarming signal for Ak-Orda bureaucrtas and a good trigger for analyzing the errors and lessons learned.

There is a potential threat that in case of fast-track «westernization» the political reforms may follow the negative Iran scenario. «The modernization model of the Shah’s Iran due to excessively speedy introduction of the elements of Western culture – not only technological, but associated with everyday life style – caused rejection of the broad masses. The regime was losing its economic dynamism and societal affinity, which resulted in its collapse». [5] This alone forces the Tokayev’s administration to stay «at the ready» and opens big scope for constructive activity after the referendum.

Assessing the referendum results

Overall, positive assessments of the Constitutional referendum in Kazakhstan prevail in the regional and foreign media. The analysis of the expert observations of the referendum process provides evidence of transparent voting and fair count of votes. Kazakhstan became the focus of attention of many foreign observers in line with the much-favored multi-vector principle – Russian, Chinese, European and Turkish observers were engaged. For example, it was the first time when Ankara sent a big group of high-level delegations headed by Muharrem Akkaya, the Chairman of the Supreme Election Council of Turkey.

Tellingly, different observers’ missions used different operating scenarios. The OSCE/ODIHR mission will publish its assessment report only in two or three months, but the mission of CSTO Parliament Assembly, SCO and CIS practically immediately announced that they had no serious criticism about the organization of referendum in Kazakhstan. Let us emphasize that Russia provided the most numerous team of observers in different formats, and China sent its political heavyweight – Zhang Ming, the Secretary General of SCO. [6] It demonstrates the interest of the two influential neighbors of Kazakhstan in political stability of this country, which they believe to be an important factor of their own geo-strategical security.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev believes the plebiscit to be his political success: «The referendum became an important milestone in our national history, demonstrated the nation’s solidarity and readiness for real change. The high turnout became evidence of our society being mature and responsible». In his address to the nation of Kazakhstan, K.-J. Tokayev emphasized that «amendments to the Constitution is not the final stage, but on the contrary – the start of our reforms». The head of state promises to continue comprehensive modernization of the country and hopes that «political transformation will promote the national economy development». [7]  This is an important accent for understanding the vector of future reforms in Kazakhstan.

As was highlighted above, the tragic January events have three root causes: political duumvirate, social and economic problems, and growing archaization of Kazakhstan society. The successful referendum proves that Kazakhstan authorities understand the domestic political situation very well and are able to quickly remove the accumulated stress. However, the other two problems – poverty and archaization – still persist. Without any doubt, they are more complicated and costly, but they should be resolved without delay. After the Constitutional referendum, the nation is expecting real action from President Tokayev – not just in politics, but mainly in economics: new jobs, improving the business climate and citizens’ well-being. The promptness and success of Tokayev’s team in resolving these problems will determine the political situation in Kazakhstan in the mid-term perspective.