Armenia’s future without CSTO: What awaits the country after suspending participation? – INTERVIEW

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking at the Global Armenian Summit, expressed that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) poses a threat to Armenia's security, sovereignty, and future. Following his speech, PM Pashinyan announced Armenia’s suspension of its participation in the CSTO: «Armenia is nearing an irreversible point with this organization», he declared.

News.Az spoke with the prominent Russian political scientist and Director General of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, Igor Korotchenko, for his analysis on the situation.

– What key events led to the deterioration of Armenia's relations with the CSTO?

– The deterioration of Russian-Armenian relations has been gradual but swift, starting with Armenia’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War. Armenia had expected Russia to intervene on its behalf within Azerbaijan’s territory, but these expectations were misguided.

Some Armenian lobbyists in Russia, such as Konstantin Zatulin, even called for the deployment of Russian airborne divisions to Armenia during the events of 2020 to halt Azerbaijan’s military advances. But President Putin made the only sensible choice: to mediate between the sides. This culminated in the trilateral statement signed on November 10, 2020, which officially marked Armenia’s capitulation.

This defeat marked the beginning of worsening relations between Armenia and Russia, as Armenian society and its elites blamed Moscow for their military failure, believing that Russia had not fulfilled its allied obligations – similar accusations were made against the CSTO.

In reality, Armenia had occupied 20% of Azerbaijani territory and sought Russian support to sustain that occupation. When this failed, the blame was unfairly shifted onto Moscow. Subsequently, Armenian society, especially after the dismantling of the separatist regime in Karabakh, again directed its frustrations not at Pashinyan or their own military but at Moscow.

Against this backdrop, Armenia invited an EU observer mission, which is conducting intelligence-gathering activities. Pashinyan has since pursued a strategy of distancing himself from Russia, increasing military cooperation with the West, and cultivating anti-Russian rhetoric. This policy of aligning with the West has further strained Russian-Armenian ties.

– Why does Nikol Pashinyan see the CSTO as a threat to Armenia’s sovereignty?

– Pashinyan’s claims against the CSTO are baseless. His statements that the organization poses a security threat are part of a broader campaign to demonize the CSTO as Armenia edges towards a complete withdrawal. Armenia has essentially stopped participating in CSTO activities, including high-level meetings and military exercises, and it has ceased paying membership fees.

Now, Pashinyan’s accusations serve as a prelude to Armenia’s full departure from the CSTO. However, it is crucial to recognize that the CSTO guarantees the security of Armenia’s internationally recognized borders, especially once delimitation and demarcation with Azerbaijan are complete and a peace treaty is signed.

The CSTO remains the sole protector of Armenia’s territorial integrity. By rejecting the CSTO, Armenia appears to believe its security will be safeguarded through military cooperation with the United States and France. Only time will tell whether Pashinyan’s gamble will succeed, though it is evidently flawed.

Meanwhile, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov reiterated today that the organization continues to view Armenia as a member and hopes relations can be normalized.

– What alternative security measures is Armenia considering if it fully severs ties with the CSTO?

– Armenia’s primary alternative security mechanism seems to be reliance on the West. The country is increasingly becoming a NATO «Trojan horse». We might see Russian forces, including the border guards and military base, replaced by French, American, or EU contingents.

However, this strategy may backfire. The West may use Armenia to destabilize the South Caucasus rather than secure its safety. That said, the Armenian leadership has clearly chosen a pro-Western, anti-Russian path.

– How might Armenia's suspension of CSTO participation affect the military-political landscape in the region?

– Armenia’s claims regarding Russia’s failure to supply arms are politicized and exaggerated. There are channels for addressing these issues, but Armenia’s Russophobia and anti-Russian stance continue to escalate. Unfortunately, a significant portion of Armenian society now backs Pashinyan and supports his Western-oriented policies.

Numerous Western NGOs and foundations, including French, American, and European, operate within Armenia, undermining Russian-Armenian relations. The exclusion of Russian as a compulsory language in Armenian schools further signals this shift. Consequently, future generations in Armenia may be raised with a Russophobic outlook, distancing themselves from Russian culture and literature.

It is important to recognize that Armenia is placing undue faith in joining the European Union, despite evidence from countries like Georgia and Turkey that this path is full of empty promises. Still, Armenia seems determined to rely on the West, hoping to live off their support, just as it once did with Russia.

The West, however, will undoubtedly use Armenia for its own political and military purposes. Unfortunately, it appears Armenia is being set up for a fate similar to Ukraine’s, becoming a destabilizing force in the region.

– How could resumed supplies of Smerch missile systems from Russia affect the relationship between Armenia and Russia?

– Today, Armenia is seen as a source of instability in the South Caucasus. President Lukashenko of Belarus even noted during his visit to Azerbaijan that Azerbaijan now holds the mandate for ensuring peace and stability in the region, underlining Azerbaijan’s growing role as a regional leader.

Azerbaijan, under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, is a strong and independent country, much to the frustration of the West. Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and its ability to pursue its own path on the global stage – without succumbing to Western pressure – are key to its success.

However, external forces will likely attempt to use Armenia as a tool to destabilize the region, targeting not only Azerbaijan but also Turkey, Iran, and Russia. Moreover, we must keep an eye on Georgia, as the West may also seek to incite a coup there to unseat the current government, which cannot be easily defeated through elections.

If successful, we could see two destabilizing regimes in Yerevan and Tbilisi, causing further tension in the South Caucasus. Let’s hope Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, prevails in the elections and that its security forces uphold the will of the Georgian people.