The situation in the South Caucasus after Trump’s victory depends on the personalities in his administration

Igor Korotchenko, the General Director of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, in his interview to Moscow – Baku spoke about the implications of the Trump’s presidency for the South Caucasus.

– Today, the Press Office of the RF Foreign Intelligence Service released a statement about the USA State Department is striving for a definite break of Armenia from Russia. With that purpose they are trying to energize NGOs in the Republic to control the Armenian bureaucrats and to raise anti-Russian sentiment in the nation. Also, today Shoigu blamed the West for its attempts to influence the South Caucasus. It is clear, that so far it is continuation of Biden’s administration policy, but will Trump continue this policy with respect to Armenia? What should we expect from Trump’s policy in the South Caucasus?

– The fact is that in reality Trump, just like Biden’s administration and like Kamala Harris, are far away from the South Caucasus. But during the presidential race both Trump and Harris were making curtsies towards Armenian lobby. I believe, that Trump was doing that exclusively with the purpose to gain additional votes. The Armenian community in the territory of the USA is numerous, influential and well organized from the standpoint of voting and other issues.

The South Caucasus is not among the Donald Trump’s priorities. Trump’s policy in this region will depend on people occupying the key positions in his administration: in the State Department, in CIA, in the staff of the National Security Council. The foreign policy directives and the US policy per se in the South Caucasus will be dependent on these appointments. I believe that Armenian lobbyists will not miss their chance to promote people loyal to the global Armenian community to these positions. It means that the policy to a great extent will depend on whether the Armenian lobbyists are able to place their cronies at different levels of the new American administration. Even if such appointees will be relatively neutral, we all remember Congress and Senate members, who were receiving incentives from the Armenian lobby in the form of gold bullions. It is an eternal fight of the good with the evil.

It is absolutely clear that under Trump, just like it was under Biden, Washington’s policy will be focused on undermining and reduction of Russian and Iranian positions in the region. 

On the other hand, Azerbaijanian diplomacy will be undertaking efforts to oppose the attempts of the Armenian lobbyists to influence the policy of the USA. Azerbaijan is the most important country in the region, and the South Caucasus is one of the key geo-economic regions of the world. A lot of energy resources are concentrated here, and this region also is very important from the strategic point of view. It is becoming just as important as the Persian Gulf. Both Russia and Azerbaijan will continue to promote and defend their interests here. Just like other countries of the «Caspian Five».

As we can see, Biden’s administration was taking an extremely pro-Armenian policy over the recent years. What will be the position of Trump’s administration – so far, it is difficult to say.

The Press Office of the RF Foreign Intelligence Service is classifying the activities of the West in the South Caucasus explicitly as the continuing attempts to destabilize the situation. They are trying to turn Armenia into a new anti-Russian ram, new Ukraine, new destabilization hotbed.

Right now, the West failed to organize a successful coup d’état in Georgia, so it will refocus on Armenia. Today Armenia is viewed as being in the orbit of influence of the USA, France and the EU, as the country willing to implement their interests and wishes. We understand that such trends will be strengthening the positions of these Western countries in the region.

Today the assessment of the situation in the South Caucasus by the Press Office of the RF Foreign Intelligence Service is a clear mark of the fact, that the activities of the West here have gone too far, and Moscow is forced to openly state this problem. Such assessments tell us that the current trends are building up more and more (both in Armenia, and in the South Caucasus in general).

The main Anglo-Saxon principle is «divide and conquer». They bring it to the FSU area. Their «soft power» and NGO will remain here. That is why Azerbaijan as a strong sovereign country needs to control the situation along these lines. 

Undoubtedly, after reinstatement of its territorial integrity Azerbaijan is a different state in terms of its power and influence. Hence, it is unlikely that the United States will be able to dictate their terms to it. 

At the same time, we can say that Trump coming into power is a better option for Azerbaijan compared to Camala Harris. There are no doubts about that. Remember that Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, at the Global Media Forum in Shusha this summer clearly indicated that the relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the United States of America were much better during the previous Trump’s presidency. Baku is also happy about the fact the under Trump the United States did not set off any wars. 

– Ruslan Edelgeriev, Aide to the President of the Russian Federation, answering the question about the outlook of the contacts between the RF and Trump offered the newly elected American President to visit Baku to participate in COP29 and communicate with the Russian party there. We remember, there were times, when the heads of the General Staffs of the Russian Federation and of the United States of America met in Azerbaijan…

– Baku definitely offers a good venue for negotiations. This could look beautiful. But I am realistic when speaking about the conflict between Russia and the West. Climate agenda is unlikely to help to resolve very serious issues between the RF and the USA, between the RF and the West. 

I do not believe that Trump will really perform as a peacemaker. On the contrary, I expect certain intensification of the rivalry across the world. It would be too good for Russia’s interests if the US would all of a sudden stop to pump in weapons into Ukraine. In my opinion, Trumps is not «the dove of peace». He is a tough politician, who will be protecting the interests of the USA. In that way or another, the clash of interests of Moscow and Washington is inevitable. The near future will show whether the succeed in achieving any agreement or not.