Igor Korotchenko: in the emergency situation when Armenia crosses the red lines Russia may switch on the «economic response mode»

Igor Korotchenko, the General Director of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies (Russia), in his interview to Moscow – Baku commented the recent provocative statements by Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, related to the CSTO.

– Yesterday, the Armenian Prime Minister in essence stated that Armenia would not return to the CSTO… Why did he voice such a statement now? And should we expect the legally formal exit of this country from the Collective Security Treaty Organization in the near future?

– I believe that it is not yet time for Armenia to exit the CSTO. Why? First of all, because too brusque demarches of Yerevan may cause Russia to launch the mechanism of economic sanctions against Armenia. Respectively, it will cause trade and economic problems for Armenia and entail serious losses for its budget. It may turn into a challenging scenario for Pashinyan. At least for today.

The trade and economic ties with Russia and the membership in the EAEU provide for huge preferences to Armenia. As for the economic support and assistance promised by the West, it will be relatively insignificant compared to the potential losses Armenia could incur due to its insults against Russia and the CSTO.

Yesterday’s aggressive statements by Pashinyan against the CSTO are nothing but an emotional escapade and a response to the recent speech of the Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, in my opinion, the legally formalized exit of Armenia from the Collective Security Treaty Organization is not going to happen.

At the same time, it should be noted that today Armenia refuses any formats of cooperation with the CSTO, does not participate in meetings at different levels, in military exercises, in routine activities and planning of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and also refuses to pay statutory fees.

– In case Armenia after all exits the CSTO, what will it mean for this organization?

– Let us be frank: from the practical standpoint Armenia’s exit will be a negative signal for the organization. 

At the same time, if we are talking about the collective security system and the mechanism of military interaction, the Collective Security Treaty Organization will not suffer at all from Armenia’s exit. However, from the standpoint of politics it will cause certain damage resulting from Pashinyan’s decision. All the more so, that it will be accompanied by negative and often rude statements by Yerevan against Åðåâàíà the CSTO and its member states.

If Armenia exits the CSTO, this will definitely hurt the organization. It will be a demonstration of a transcendental anti-Russian action. This is exactly how Kremlin will interpret Armenia’s exit from the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

In my opinion, Armenia is not weighing all the risks and implications of its decisions. It looks like emotional approach prevails in Yerevan rather than accurate calculation and analysis of expert opinions about the negative implications’ scenarios. At the very least, Russia will launch the economic response mode.

In my comments I would like to emphasize that my evaluation of the situation is not intimidation of Armenia. As an expert I believe that in the current context Armenia needs to weigh all potential consequences including big economic losses. The export of Armenian fruits and vegetables and the agricultural products in general will come down to zero, óæåñòî÷åíèå phytosanitary controls will become stricter. Do they intent to export Armenian brandy to France instead of Russia? And let their beloved Emmanuel Macron be lobbying it. We will see if he succeeds.

If Pashinyan will be «clamping down» and «unhinge» in his relations with the CSTO and Russia, he should not forget that every year the Armenians working in Russia transfer about USD 5-6 bn to Armenia. If he talks about breaking the relations in the strategic sphere, in military security and political contacts, he should be ready to break economic ties as well.

In this respect the Armenian Prime Minister needs to carefully analyze his own outlook for elections. It is one thing to introduce unsubstantiated claims about Russia and the CSTO not having come to the rescue. But it is quite another thing for Yerevan to exit the Collective Security Treaty Organization and to face the relevant response.

Armenian elites should be clearly analyzing the economic element of all their political decisions. So far, the feeling is they still have the illusions about everything going smoothly.

Having stepped on the rake with Moldova and Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to do the same with Armenia.

At the same time, who will provide military guarantees to Armenia? Iran? No way. Iran is currently facing numerous challenges both in its domestic and foreign policy. Besides, ñåé÷àñ Syria will be demanding a lot of its resources including the military ones. I believe, Teheran will have more important things to think about instead of saving Yerevan from the catastrophe.

Another option is for the West to send its troops to Armenia, but this quite illusive. Hence, Armenia’s exit from the CSTO will result in losing its «security umbrella».

Instead of introducing claims against the CSTO, it will be much better for Pashinyan to sign the Peace Treaty with Azerbaijan.

– The USA intend to promote pro-Western parties in Armenia to control Pashinyan implementing their recommendations… Does it mean they are trying to push the Armenian Prime Minister to facilitate its breaking from Russia?

– There is no doubt. As you know, the US Embassy to Yerevan is the biggest one in the FSU area, and it has been trying to facilitate the break of the relations between Yerevan and Moscow since long ago.

In this context we should remember the situation in Georgia. In the conditions when the ruling party «Georgian Dream» retains power and does not fall for the color-coded revolutions methods, the status of Armenia in the eyes of Washington and the «collective West» will be growing as an important springboard for their operations in the South Caucasus.

– Today, the President of Azerbaijan raised the topic of the need to return the Azeri people expelled from Armenia back to their territories. He commented that Yerevan was not willing to start any dialogue on this topic …

– The return of the Azeri people expelled from Armenia is absolutely fair from the stand point of the international law standards. The Azeri people expelled from Armenia and their progeny should return to their territories, the Armenian Government needs to issue formal apologies to Azerbaijan, pay relevant compensations and launch the process of returning to Armenia for these people.

Will Yerevan be willing to discuss this topic with the necessary understanding? No. They are not willing to discuss even the perspective of raising such an issue. Nevertheless, the truth is always victorious. And the need for Yerevan to continue dialogue with the Azeri people will be more and more dominating.

Armenia today is a mono-ethnical state. And this creates fertile ground for nationalism and nationalistic egoism.