Igor Korotchenko about personnel purges in Armenia: I presume they are connected with Pashinyan’s plans to change the Constitution in order to sign the Peace Treaty with Azerbaijan

Igor Korotchenko, the General Director of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, in his interview to Moscow – Baku about the causes of the ministerial «purges» by the Armenian Prime Minister and their possible links with the Peace Treaty with Azerbaijan.

– The other day, the Armenian Prime Minister was outspokenly critical about the performance of law enforcement agencies and the judicial and legal system, which led to the resignation of the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Investigative Committee, the Anti-Corruption Committee, the Supreme Judicial Council, as well as the Minister of Infrastructure and Territorial Governance, and the Chair of the State Revenue Committee. The Armenian media inform that there are more resignations to expect. What are the main causes for such a decision of the Armenian Prime Minister?

– I presume, this is the way for Nikol Pashinyan to assure the stability of the foundation for his power. But in this case, there is another additional factor. We know that Vage Kazaryan, the former head of the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is the childhood friend of the acting head of the Government of Armenia. At the same time now the persons who will come to replace the resigned bureaucrats will not just be personally loyal to Pashinyan, but they will be those having successfully passed the Washington’s casting. They will be the people assuring sustainability and succession in case something happens to Pashinyan from the standpoint of complete turn of Armenia towards the West. This is what the West needs. In case of any force-majeure, these people will not allow for changing the status quo currently existing in the Armenian power elites.

In the case of Vage Kazaryan, the former head of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, – childhood friendship is one thing, but Kazaryan got famous for quite rough suppression of the opposition, so he became a not convenient figure for Pashinyan. On top of that, I presume that this figure does not quite satisfy Washington, because eventually only the USA decide, who and how should be ruling in the Armenian government.

At the same time, I believe that Kazaryan, similarly to Agrishti Kyaramyan, the former head of the Investigative Committee of Armenia, will not completely fall out of the political deck of cards, because they are close to Pashinyan and will be in demand in that or another way, but in some new status.

We know that the West today is capturing more and more control over the government structures and power systems of Armenia. The main thing is that now the national Security Council is controlled by the West, as it is headed if not by a direct CIA agent, but by a person having undergone through a system of American and Western NGOs. Yes, the West is strengthening its political positions, and this trend is clearly obvious.

In the Armenian media we can see the version about Pashinyan organizing these personnel purges in relation with his intent to organize the pre-term election shifting it from 2026 to the forthcoming 2025. They say, he wants to demonstrate to the public such things as the changes for the good in Armenia, the struggle against the corruption. And hence, get the public support again.

This version seems to be quite a working one. If Pashinyan indeed will be implementing his pre-term election plan, it will be important for him to preserve the enforcement carcass of his power, to keep it stable and ready for tough counteraction against any attempts to change the situation. As we can see, the West is assisting him in that.

Besides, there is a version about Pashinyan starting the process of Constitutional change right after the pre-term parliamentary election and thus confirming his legitimacy for the public. The potential amendments to the Constitution will be focused on excluding the territorial claims towards Azerbaijan from its text. After that, Armenia and Azerbaijan will be able to sign the Peace Treaty. Of course, there is such a probability, but the chances are fifty-fifty. It is difficult to say now, whether everything will go in line with such a scenario. Today, Armenia is the country, where it is difficult to forecast anything and to say that any decision will be surely implemented, even after it is announced. There are chances, but we will see, if they are realized.

It is known that Azerbaijan does not intend to sign any interim versions of the Peace Treaty. The political position of Azerbaijan is to sign only a legally transparent and fair Peace Treaty protecting the positions and interests of Azerbaijan and based on the five basic principles described by President Ilham Aliyev. Any interim Peace Treaty without clauses that are vitally important for Azerbaijan is impossible. By the way, such interim treaty will not satisfy Russia either.

– Pashinyan called Donald Trump to congratulate him with winning the presidential race. What were his intentions in your opinion?

– His purpose was to bring Trump into his further political game. Yes, Pashinyan made a phone call, so what? There were many people who called Trump. But what will be the implications? Trump is unpredictable. But the Armenian lobby in the US is absolutely predictable. They are already looking how to approach new political figures, who will head the key ministries and agencies of the new US administration to obtain their levers of influence to push for the pro-Armenian position in prejudice of Azerbaijan.

Trump claims he wants to put an end to a conflict around Ukraine. We can see that Pashinyan continues to adhere to the principle of supporting Kiev, and Russia cannot be happy about that. Recently, in Budapest he took part in trilateral contacts with Zelensky and Ursula von der Leyen. Recently Pashinyan’s spouse visited Ukrainian children in Italy.

This is not just news, but a consistent policy. We remember, that earlier Pashinyan’s wife visited Kiev and met with Zelensky’s wife. Russia has been observing such curtsies towards Ukraine for quite a long time and on a regular basis. The Armenian Prime minister is making the same curtsies towards the Belarus opposition. Eventually, it is not Pashinyan who is the main evil in the South Caucasus. The main evil is not only the attempt of the West to force on its own practices here, but a combination with aggressive, revanchist, nationalistic global Armenian community presenting itself as a separate entity of geo-politics and making their decisions based on the Miatsum ideas and other historical phobias.