Consolidating for Safe and Sustainable Future

Summit Agenda

On July 3-4, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its 24th summit in Astana. The summit proceeded in the SCO+ format, bringing together heads of state and government of sixteen countries. As a reminder, following the decision on the full membership of Belarus, there are now ten SCO member countries, which also include Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India, and Iran. The expanded format of the summit implied the attendance of leaders of Dialogue Partners: Azerbaijan, Qatar, Mongolia, UAE, Turkmenistan, and Türkiye. A number of international organizations such as the United Nations, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (EOCD), Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICMA), Islamic Organization for Food Security, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Commission were represented at a high level [1].

Under the theme «Strengthening Multilateral Dialogue – Striving towards a Sustainable Peace and Prosperity», the Astana summit agenda was concentrated on strengthening the SCE role in addressing important international and regional concerns. Deglobalization and disintegration of the once-prevailing unipolar world order have become political realities of our time, and these processes are intensifying. However without regional security and cooperation institutions such as SCO, the countries of Eurasia would be doomed to face a long series of mutual conflicts. The decline of US global hegemony is evident from two problems that manifest themselves today: supply chain disruption and increasing number of conflicts around the SCO periphery. Eurasian leaders thus focused primarily on regional security, international trade and economy for higher stability. The Astana summit participants also discussed issues related to the development of infrastructure, energy, environment, public health, tourism, education, digitalization, transport and logistics.

Following the summit discussions, 25 documents in various fields were signed, including the program-level Astana Declaration stating the common SCO position on current international and regional issues and prospects. The member countries also adopted the SCO Development Strategy until 2035 and the SCO Energy Cooperation Development Strategy until 2030. One of the key topics on the summit agenda was countering terrorism and drug trafficking. The participants reviewed the Program of Cooperation of SCO Member States in Countering Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism for the period 2025-2027, and the SCO Anti-Drug Strategy for the period 2024-2029. This impressive package of documents clearly demonstrates the ever-growing influence of SCO in different areas. The Organization is evolving into a powerful regional block that embraces Europe as well as Asia and becomes a strong player in the global political arena. In means that cooperation within the framework of SCO is a global factor stabilizing international relations.

Paths of Renovation

It is noteworthy that the SCO countries are taking effort to resolve conflicts without being involved in global confrontation, gradually promoting their own political agenda. In a recent interview, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told Xinhua that following the SCO summit the participating countries will make an appeal to the international community to start an open and honest global dialogue, and adopt a new security paradigm [2]. Within the framework of the SCO presidency, Kazakhstan advocates renovating SCO through the prism of its own vision of global development, strengthening the Organization’s potential in the new geopolitical environment, and its further institutionalization. Today SCO is a unique platform for discussing key international issues, thus promoting mutual trust and cooperation throughout Eurasia. The organization emphasizes the principles of sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of states, which is especially relevant in times of growing international tension. This does not only imply addressing issues through a predominantly peaceful and diplomatic approach, but also de-escalation of conflicts and demilitarization of particular regions to prevent them from turning into global war areas [3].

Experts point out that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has come a long way in the course of its history, and in the meantime the global geopolitical situation changed substantially. Over a short period of time, SCO evolved from a formal agreement on regional borders into an influential international organization dealing with matters of military and political cooperation and also active in addressing economic and humanitarian issues. As a reminder, the initial SCO mandate was to settle a dispute around the former Soviet-Chinese border, which was delimited quickly and successfully. A few years later the Organization’s activity became centered on China’s discourse of countering the «triple evil» of extremism, separatism and terrorism. This brought to the forefront the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), which until now remains the most active part of SCO. Next followed the phase of rapid OSC expansion, when membership was obtained by big countries that have been in a long-standing conflict (India and Pakistan), and the struggling Iran. This partially counterbalanced China’s prevalence in SCO and increased the role of moderators such as Russia, while also giving more voice to middle powers such as Kazakhstan.

The COVID-19 pandemics and the geopolitical stress test of 2022 resulted in substantial structural shifts in the global security system and disintegration of the outdated globalization model. All this, on the one hand, makes the present role of SCO even more important and on the other, gives a powerful impetus to the Organization’s development. Kazakhstani political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev remarks that «the former unipolar worlds are breaking apart, with coalitions such as SCO, BRICS, CSTO, and EAEU becoming the anchors of stability in the turbulent world» [4]. Experts specifically mention the fact that the accession of Iran and Belarus to SCO became an inflecting point in the Organization’s history. Of the ten SCO members, five are currently, and for quite a long time already, subject to severe Western sanctions. The other members remain under a threat of secondary sanctions in one way or another. So sooner or later, a real unification within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization against the ever-growing pressure from the West will become relevant. Figuratively speaking, SCO will soon see the need to abandon the rhetorical speech of courtly diplomacy and face the harsh truth of real politics.

The Astana Declaration

All the fundamental principles adhered to by the Kazakhstan diplomacy are reflected in the SCO Astana Declaration adopted by the summit. The Declaration is aimed to enhance the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in creating conditions for stronger universal peace, security and stability, and for building a new democratic and fair political and economic world order; it seeks to improve the SCO mechanisms for countering challenges and threats to security, combatting terrorism, extremism and other types of transnational organized crime. In particular, the leaders of the SCO countries pointed to the growing trend towards the use of force in international politics. Responding to those challenges, member States emphasize that interaction within the Organization can serve as a solid basis for a new security architecture in Eurasia. It must be noted that all SCO member states are committed to building a more democratic, just and multipolar world order. In Astana, they confirmed their adherence to peaceful settlement of differences between countries [5].

The focal point of the Astana Declaration is global security. SCO leaders declared it unacceptable to try to ensure security of some states at the expense of others; in their opinion, the build-up of global missile defense systems by individual states or groups of states has a negative impact on international security. The Astana summit participants advocate strict compliance with the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Biological and Toxin Weapons, and oppose the deployment of weapons in outer space. In matters concerning strategic armaments, SCO heads of state stand for strict compliance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Their appeal is to continue the process of disarmament and promote peaceful nuclear development among the Organization’s member states.

The SCO countries criticized unilateral sanctions and trade restrictions; they called Central Asia the core of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The summit participants reaffirmed their commitment to the fight against terrorism, emphasizing the inadmissibility of attempts to use separatist and extremist groups for mercenary goals. The Member States call on the international community to adopt, within the UN framework, the Comprehensive Convention for the Suppression of International Terrorism as «an important contribution to the existing framework of universal international counter-terrorism instruments». Finally, in the Declaration document the SCO leaders agreed to join efforts in countering drug trafficking, arms smuggling and other types of transnational organized crime.

President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev identified the key areas of strategic importance for all the countries of the Shanghai Ten. The first is strengthening mutual trust and cooperation in the field of security. «The current difficult situation is largely a consequence of the acute crisis in the entire system of international relations. Against this background, the SCO must strengthen its stabilizing and creative role to overcome the erosion of international law, prevent geopolitical fault lines and, ultimately, strengthen peace and security in a broad global context», Tokayev said. The second priority area, according to him, is expansion of trade and economic cooperation and the third, strengthening transport connectivity through efficient corridors and reliable supply chains. The President of Kazakhstan put a special focus on the need to reform and modernize the SCO, noting that all his proposals were motivated by a sincere desire to contribute as much as possible to the common noble goals shared by all SCO member countries [6].

The New Currency World

As indicated in a previous report by the Caspian Institute of Strategic Studies, SCO in its current status appears as an amorphous «movement of non-alignment with the West», without clear rules, goals and program. China views the Organization as the «anti-West» block which takes decisive action against «color revolutions» and external interferences in the internal affairs of the region’s countries. This anti-West strategy within the framework of the «Eurasian Monroe Doctrine» is strongly supported by such influential SCO allies as Russia, Iran and Belarus that have first-hand experience facing large-scale sanctions and military and political pressure from the West [7]. Until recently, Central Asia countries and India maintained an ambivalent and even accommodating position, having neither willingness nor resources to oppose the West. Last year’s SCO summit prioritized the economic aspects of the Organization and focused on preventing the non-Western bloc from becoming openly anti-Western. It has become clear over the past year that the West will not stop mounting pressure on all SCO member states without exception, making it impossible for «compromisers» to keep foot in both camps under the threat of secondary sanctions.

The SCO Astana Summit clearly demonstrated that Moscow and Beijing, having taken many steps to de-dollarize their respective markets, continue to steer SCO away from the West. Well-placed sources report that the main subject of closed-door talks in Astana was accelerated formation of an SCO-wide internal payment system that will operate outside the dollar and euro zones and remain immune to Western sanctions. This trend is evidenced in a number of statements in the SCO Astana Declaration where the leaders «encourage the development and responsible use of technological innovation, including innovative payment systems». Note another crucial statement of the Declaration: «The Member States emphasized the need to provide financial support for project activities in order to fully unlock the investment potential of the Organization and, in this regard, continue consultations on the creation of the SCO Development Bank and the SCO Development Fund (Special Account)» [8].

Today SCO takes decisive steps to develop economic cooperation, coordinate projects in transport and energy sectors, support small and medium-sized business, and endorses initiatives to upgrade transport and energy infrastructure within the region. However all those ambitious economy-related plans may fail just because SCO member countries will be unable to transfer funds to each other. Regional experts argue that the key issue for the SCO now should be an alternative financial system for mutual settlements. The priorities include currency swaps, bank transfer and payment systems, a Faster Payments System for private funds transfers, an ATM network, and cryptocurrency payments. «When it assumed Presidency, Kazakhstan said that the SCO should enhance its role as an organization capable of implementing major economic, investment and technology projects. The SCO should be given more of substantive economic content», says Bakhtier Ergashev, Uzbek political analyst and Director of the Ma’No Center of Research Initiatives [9].

A new currency world was a focal point in the speeches of many SCO member country leaders. For instance, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov reintroduced the idea of setting up the SCO Development Bank and the SCO Development Fund and invited the Organization’s potential members to take part in the activities of those institutions. President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev is also concerned that «for a long period of time, no consensus has been reached on the establishment of a SCO development fund and bank». Mohammad Mokhber, acting President of Iran, spoke in favor of excluding the US dollar from trade transactions among SCO member countries; he also suggested that the SCO countries discuss «the introduction of a breakthrough technology-based SCO single currency». President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, speaking on behalf of his country as a full member of the Organization, said: «Belarus considers the establishment of a two-way payment mechanism using national currencies and a collective financial institution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a priority». He also called for avoiding the «dollar crackhead». President of Russia Vladimir Putin reminded the forum of Russia’s proposal to build up an independent payments and settlements mechanism within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. He expressed confidence that the SCO and BRICS are «the main pillars of this new world order. These associations are powerful drivers of global development processes and the establishment of genuine multipolarity» [10].

The Military Component

Security cooperation is the main priority of the SCO development strategy. This opinion is held by Chinese political analyst Ding Xiaoxing who argues that «first we need to deal with regional security, and then with economic development». It is noteworthy that this view expressed by the influential expert also reflects the official position of Beijing, as the Organization’s Secretariat is located in China. This Chinese concept implies countering the «three evils» – extremism, separatism and terrorism. As a reminder, there already exist counterterrorism committees within the framework of SCO which address the above-mentioned issues and ensure country-to-country information sharing. During the Astana summit China made new and very important statements concerning security. President Xi Jinping called on the SCO member countries to join efforts in maintaining regional security, strengthen intelligence sharing, conduct joint operations and, more generally, introduce additional means to supplement the existing mechanism of security coordination. «The more means there are, the stronger security will be», he said when speaking at a SCO+ session [11].

The Chinese leader has every reason to insist on intensifying the exchange of intelligence information. Terrorism and extremism are among the key problems of the Eurasian region affecting virtually every SCO country. Another problem is subversive activities of Western intelligence agencies within Eurasia. It is well known that a number of Western secret services (CIA, MI-6, DGSE) acting through sponsored NGOs are making attempts to undermine domestic political stability, provoke «color revolutions» and mass unrest in countries of the region. Experts believe that SCO countries’ security services should take much more effort to exchange information on the activities of terrorist and extremist groups. To counter such activity, a single biometrics database of terrorists, extremists and Western agents must be compiled. The proposal of the Islamic Republic of Iran to set up the SCO Police, which might subsequently evolve into a «Eurasian Interpol», was definitely a positive move.

The time is ripe to consider the creation of a Joint Intelligence Committee of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with the capacity for real time analysis of global processes through the prism of risks and threats to SCO countries’ national security; it will provide a mechanism for intelligence information exchange, recommend join measures to counter threats and challenges, and broaden the framework for professional collaboration in fighting terrorism, separatism and extremism. In this regard, one should take note of the «intention to further develop interaction between the analytical and expert circles of the SCO Member States» written in the SCO Declaration. In fact, this can amount to a Eurasian intelligence alliance, as an alternative to Five Eyes [an Anglosphere intelligence alliance comprising the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand].

Special consideration should be given to the establishment of an SCO Military Committee; in the initial phase, it will supervise a unified Cyber Command whose function will be to counter threats encountered in the SCO member countries’ infospace and thwart attempts to use social media for the incitement of «color revolutions» orchestrated by the West.

In the near future, the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure of SCO will be reorganized into a «universal center tasked with responding to the entire spectrum of security threats», as RF President Vladimir Putin suggested at the Astana summit. Concerted action towards regional security will be continued, in particular by way of conducting joint anti-terrorism and command post exercises as well as continuous situation monitoring within the SCO region of responsibility.

In addition to promoting security at the regional level, SCO countries should also maintain a strategic outlook. With the accelerating erosion of the unipolar world, the SCO is faced with three crucial tasks contributing to pan-Eurasian security.

First, creation of a collective anti-missile shield, becoming especially relevant in view of US withdrawal from the INF Treaty and the anticipated deployment of comparable missile systems on the US allies’ territory in the immediate vicinity of SCO member states. The shield may be built upon shared air and missile defense capabilities using modern Russian long and medium range systems. Its crucial element would be a unified missile warning system (MWS) based upon existing national MWS of Russia, China and India.

Second, sea dominance within the SCO area of responsibility, to the extent of deblockading key straits and freedom of navigation operations. It takes joint efforts of naval fleets of Russia, Türkiye, Iran, India, and China to ensure stability of global production and supply chains, and provide military guarantee of future sustainable development of SCO member countries.

Third, «Aerocratia» – laying the foundation for future dominance of SCO countries in hypersonic and space projects.

Development Prospects

A momentous event at the SCO Astana summit was the accession of Belarus as a full member of the Organization. Russian analysts expect that this will significantly enhance Russia’s positions in promoting the common agenda. Moreover, such expansion is important for the SCO as a whole – «the organization where one of the key players is Russia is getting increasingly stronger as a real alternative to Western alliances». Alexander Lukashenko himself highlighted the new historical date for Minsk as he spoke in Astana, and he went ahead with a number of bold proposals. He argued that «the initiative for building genuine security» can only be carried out by the SCO, as the «narcissistic and selfish West has not been able to do it. There are currently no leaders in the West who can make responsible decisions on their own». According to Lukashenko, the steps proposed by him will enable SCO to build a «Greater Eurasia» on the basis of the document adopted last autumn: «We need to develop a concept which already has a name and for which there is a draft – the Eurasian Charter for Diversity and Multipolarity in the 21^st Century [12].

Regional experts are welcoming the accession of Belarus to SCO. «Belarus becoming a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a clear signal that SCO can expand to the West as well as to the East. SCO has approached a border with NATO in a very real sense. This interpretation is most appropriate because SCO was designed as a military and political organization», Kazakhstani political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev believes [13]. Belarus may play the role of an entry «gate» to facilitate collaboration between European countries and SCO members, says Belarusian political observer Alexei Dzermant, who is also Director of the Northern Eurasia Center for Continental Integration Studies and Development. He believes that «Minsk may become a model and, in some respects, a showcase for other European states, which are no longer limited to membership in the Euro-Atlantic block only» [14].

This suggests possible future SCO membership of countries such as Hungary, Serbia and North Macedonia. It means that today the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is concerned about security not only in the Asian region but on a much larger scale – throughout the enormous Eurasia continent.

Another significant feature of the SCO summit was participation of two leaders of the Turkic world – President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During a meeting in Astana a statement was made that China supports the enhancement of Azerbaijan’s legal status in the SCO (currently a dialogue partner); in 2025, within the framework of China’s presidency of the Organization this matter will be given special attention [15]. On the sidelines of the Astana summit the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration on the establishment of a strategic partnership between Beijing and Baku. One objective factor that makes Azerbaijan’s membership in SCO especially relevant is the country’s evolution towards a key international transport and logistical hub, as well as Baku’s tremendous contribution to the vital communications projects of the East-West and North-South transport corridors. Today Azerbaijan becomes the main «bridge» on the world’s most important freight traffic route between China and Europe [16].

In his statement during the summit, Ilham Aliyev remarked that «connectivity along East-West and North-South transport corridors constitutes an important area of cooperation between Azerbaijan and the SCO Member States. The geographic position and substantial investments in transport infrastructure have enabled Azerbaijan to become one of the transport and logistic hubs in Eurasia. The annual tonnage capacity of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway – an integral part of the Middle Corridor – has increased from 1 mln to 5 mln tons thanks to the Azerbaijani investments». «We are working with partner countries to ensure digitalization of the Middle Corridor», the Azerbaijani leader pointed out.

«Furthermore, Azerbaijan aims to increase the annual capacity of the Alat International Sea Trade Port from 15 to 25 mln tons. Azerbaijan also plays an important role in the development of the North-South transport corridor. Railroad and highway infrastructure of Azerbaijani segment of the North-South corridor is ready and functions successfully. Currently, we are working to expand rail freight traffic to 15 mln tons and subsequently, when needed, to 30 mln tons a year», Ilham Aliyev said.

The President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan was also impressed by the meetings in Astana and the emerging prospects for SCO development. Upon return from the summit, the Turkish leader announced that Ankara is considering the possibility of joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. According to Erdogan, Türkiye sees reason in furthering relations with Russia and China within the framework of SCO, and seeks to change status from dialogue partner to full member as Iran, Pakistan and other Islamic states previously did [17]. Erdogan considers SCO membership very beneficial for Türkiye, whose leaders has long been disillusioned about European integration.  Note that Türkiye now acts as a connecting link, both geographically and politically, between countries of the Global South and the West, and also as the main «Southern gate» and the key «energy communicator» for the European Union. Türkiye’s potential accession to SCO will signify a radical change in the common Eurasian security system and will transform the Shanghai Cooperation Organization into a solid continental block.