Igor Korotchenko: the withdrawal of peacekeepers from Azerbaijan heralds a new reality in the South Caucasus

Political analyst Igor Korotchenko analyzed the reasons for the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan and summarized the results of their operations in the Karabakh economic region of the Azerbaijani Republic (AR) especially for the Vestnik Kavkaza portal.

 The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the Karabakh economic region of Azerbaijan indicates a new reality that has developed in the South Caucasus after closing the «Karabakh issue». That is what Igor Korotchenko, a political analyst and Director of the Caspian Institute of Strategic Studies (Russia), told the Vestnik Kavkaza while commenting on the joint decision by Moscow and Baku on termination of the peacekeeping mission operations.

«Last year very serious military and political changes took place in the region. The Russian peacekeeping contingent was deployed to Karabakh in order to fix the intermediary results of the Karabakh war: Russian peacekeeping posts were stationed along the contact line of the sides as of the cessation of the hostilities on the night of November 10, 2020 and along the Lachin corridor. That was exactly the status of Russian peacekeepers initially», – he said in the first place.

«As it is known, in September 2023 anti-terrorist measures were carried out and the Karabakh economic region was transferred under the full control of Azerbaijan, while the Armenian population left it voluntarily moving into the territory of Armenia. In this connection a new reality arose, and in the light of this new reality and upon agreement between Moscow and Baku a decision was taken to gradually withdraw the Russian peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh economic region which is happening just now», – Igor Korotchenko said.

«It should be stated that Russian peacekeepers have fulfilled the mission assigned with honor and dignity and are being withdrawn to the territory of the Russian Federation by virtue of the agreements reached between Moscow and Baku. For the time being, there is no precise information as to when the contingent will be fully withdrawn, but it is obvious that the procedure will be implemented step-by-step and within the time agreed upon between the Russian and Azerbaijani sides», – the political analyst added.

Results of the Russian peacekeeping contingent’s operations in Azerbaijan

 Speaking about specific results of the Russian peacekeeping operations in Azerbaijan for 3.5 years Igor Korotchenko placed emphasis in the first place on the implementation of clauses of the trilateral statement dated November 10, 2020. «As of the time that the Russian peacekeeping contingent commenced its operations in Karabakh, it ensured the implementation of the agreements reached in the trilateral format. Combat operations were stopped, the Armenian troops were withdrawn from the Agdam, Lachin and Kelbajar districts, peacekeeping posts established control over the situation along demarcation line between the sides. I think that in this sense their mission ensured stability», – he noted.

«Given that the Karabakh separatists actively committed acts of sabotage and terrorism, including mining Azerbaijan’s territory repeatedly, a new round of hostilities erupted and the Azerbaijani army undertook pinpoint anti-terrorist countermeasures in September 2023 to stop them. Then it was reported that Russian peacekeepers might take part in mine-clearing of the liberated territories, but now we see that the two countries decided to terminate this mission since the tasks were fulfilled», – Korotchenko stated.

«In their public speeches both Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev time and again underscored the role and importance of the peacekeeping contingent in ensuring peace and security in the region. Both the leaders of the two states offered exclusively positive assessments. The Armenian side applied a different approach, but it was motivated by certain political and situational considerations in the assessments which the same Nikol Pashinyan gives with regard to Armenia’s drift to the West. It would be strange to hear positive assessments of the Russian peacekeeping efforts by the regime that had established close ties with France, the USA and the European Union» , – Igor Korotchenko concluded.