There will be no miracles. The new USA President will focus on strengthening American military power

Igor Korotchenko, a Russian political analyst, the General Director of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, presented his evaluation of the outcomes of the presidential race in the USA during his interview to Bakinsky Rabochiy journal.

– The election system in the US is not transparent, not democratic and allows for all sorts of ballot-stuffing and manipulations. Respectively, the recent elections should not be evaluated as model or impeccable. They showed that the American society is polarized, Trump won by cliffhanging vote and internal destabilization in the country will be only growing. Besides, in the electoral system effective in the USA the victory of Trump does not say anything. Harris could have won just as likely. Of course, recent attempted assassinations of Trump combined with bluntly weak last years of President Biden eventually played against the Democratic candidate. However, as we have seen during the campaign, both candidates were neck-and-neck to the last and in any moment the balance could swing that or another way. 

– There were concerns that after the elections some major disorders could occur, because the defeated party would not admit its defeat. Do you think we should still be expecting any turmoil? 

– These concerns were mainly related with the fact that the Republicans could repeat the events that took place in Washington D.C. and some other American cities after the previous presidential elections, when Trump lost the race. However, we are still to go down the road, and it is not very clear what the situation in the US will be like. We cannot exclude anything, including new attempted assassinations of Trump. We remember well from the history, some of the murders of high-ranking American politicians including presidents are still not solved. So, any kind of unexpected surprises are possible in the US.

– How will Trump’s victory impact the foreign policy of the USA? 

– Trump is impulsive and often unpredictable, he may be snapping and flinging. That is why I do not think that the USA will exit the conflict in Ukraine. That, of course, would be the ideal scenario, but it is too good to be implemented. Knowing the sentiment is the upper and middle CIA management, I can say they were expecting Trump to win, so they will be offering tough approaches to future policy with respect to Russia. Trump’s victory is also unpleasant for China. We should not be expecting any miracles from this victory. The new President of the USA will be focused on strengthening American military power and returning the industrial production to the key states. Overall, the USA will remain the main destabilizing factor of the modern world. And with account of their military capabilities this American policy acquires more dangerous aspects. 

– We remember that during the race Trump was boasting his personal contacts with Putin and if he is elected, he will be able to resolve the Ukrainian crisis very quickly…

– This is nothing more than political populism. The Ukrainian conflict may be resolved only based on the conditions presented by Vladimir Putin. They are broadly known. We understand, that they are unacceptable for the West. Hence, the Ukrainian conflict may be resolved only by Russian army achieving the military victory in the course of the on-going warfare. That will be the decisive factor that may urge all the parties of the conflict for honest and fair peace. 

– How will Trump’s victory impact the situation in the South Caucasus?

– The American ruling elites are under quite strong influence of Armenian lobby, which is very extensive and has spread its tentacles into all the key government institutions and systemic organizations of the USA. That is why I do not believe in any radical changes of approaches. Especially given the fact that Trump already made courtesy towards Armenian lobby. We understand that it was done for the sake of certain tactical considerations, because in reality Trump doesn’t give a damn to the situations in the South Caucasus. This region is beyond his zone of priority interests. However, there are other influential American players, and Armenian lobby is still there and is very strong from political, financial and organizational standpoint. It will continue its systemic work to undercut Azerbaijan when the new administration comes into power, it will continue to promote Armenian national interests, not interests of Azerbaijan. 

– What will be the situation in the Middle East after Trump comes into power? 

– Definitely, Israel will be receiving material support. Trump’s attitude to Iran is extremely negative, and in this situation Iranian President Pezeshkian (often called the Iranian Gorbachev) will have absolutely no chances to perform his mission. On the contrary, the positions of the Iranian Revolutionary Gurds Corps will get stronger. And with account of the fact that this country is inevitable approaching the political transfer, it is obvious that the conservative forces will consolidate after Trump’s victory. However, we still cannot forecast for sure the developments in the Middle East, because Israel wants big war including using the American hands to strike the key Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. In this sense, Trump’s victory is another step towards the possibility of the big war in the Middle East.