Moderator of regional processes

The first after many years state visit of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Puttin to Azerbaijan was indeed a historic event. Meetings in narrow format and in extended format with participation of the delegations of both parties took place in the course of the visit. 

Igor Korotchenko, one of the leading Russian political analysts, the General Director of the Caspian Institute for Political Studies made his appraisal of the visit in his interview to Bakinsky Rabochy.

– This was an extremely important and successful state visit of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to the Republic of Azerbaijan. It resulted in signing many meaningful documents determining the further vector and the outlook of the interaction between Moscow and Baku in the economic, humanitarian and other spheres. 

The two Presidents had political consultations about the situation in the South Caucasus and on a broader agenda. It is clear that in the environment when the new world order is being formed, these processes are already going on, and the status and role of Azerbaijan as a strategic partner and ally are growing dramatically. In this context, the issues that were discussed in the course of negotiations (both in narrow format and in extended format) show that the foundation of the relations between our two states is growing stronger and we are looking ahead with confidence. 

– How does the Declaration on allied interaction between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation, in your opinion, contribute to the development of our bilateral relation?

– As you know, this historic document was signed in February 2022. It defines and details the areas and the prospects of our interaction underpinning all our current contacts and ties. This, of course, is an outstanding document signed in a complicated military and political situation. And it makes it even more valuable for us. Russia sees Azerbaijan as a reliable and efficient ally and partner.

Definitely, it should be noted that after all these years the status and weight of Azerbaijan have grown even more. President Ilham Aliyev today is one of the top global politicians. Baku is the trendsetter for the global processes. In several months, Azerbaijan will host the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). This truly is a milestone event in the modern world suffering from the global warming and related problems. The country will acquire a new role – the role of the moderator of the global processes going on in the South Caucasus, and at the same time will acquire special responsibility for maintaining peace and stability in this region.

– Many times, in the course of the meetings it was mentioned that stability and security in the South Caucasus depend on close interaction between Russia and Azerbaijan. What do you think about it?

– This is correct. However, unfortunately new risks and threats appear, and they are materializing from the territory of Armenia. Yerevan is deliberately putting off the peace treaty signing. The Armenian Constitution containing direct references to the documents with outright territorial claims against Azerbaijan is still not amended. That is why the negotiations are not easy at all. Moreover, mass supplies of offensive armament started in Armenia, and I mean military contracts of Armenia with the USA and joint military exercises. 

The behavior of France is extremely destructive undermining the stability in the South Caucasus. Similarly, the European Union uses its monitoring mission in the Armenian territory for intelligence and sabotage across the entire region.  

The role and the meaningfulness of the South Caucasus are growing. This is associated with the processes going on here and with the fact that the South Caucasus is the key venue for multi-modal transportation corridors of international importance. Having reinstated its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Azerbaijan has seriously strengthened its positions, while as Armenia is nothing but a putty in the capable hands of a series of institutions drawing it into their orbit.

With account of the situation in the region, it is better to cope with the growing challenges and threats together, and Azerbaijan will definitely be playing a leading role here. For a good reason it was emphasized at various levels that Azerbaijan de-facto has a mandate to assure peace and stability across the entire South Caucasus region. This task is to be resolved in close interaction with all the regional states, so that the West is not able to turn Yerevan into its Trojan horse carrying threats to security and stability. 

– Representatives of the RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other high-ranking Russian officials said a number of times that Russia was ready to assist Azerbaijan and Armenia in achieving the agreement on peace. What kind of specific help can Moscow provide?

– After the state visit of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to Baku, Moscow will hold consultations with Yerevan, and our President will once again offer himself in the capacity of unbiased and fair mediator. However, we understand that the Armenian’s position will be to a great extent determined not by the good will of Moscow, but by Washington and – to a certain extent – Paris. Respectively, Yerevan is not free in fair dialogue today. The international Armenian community is playing instead, and it has a very strong leverage in a number of countries including the USA, France, the Netherlands and some other EU member states. The role of this community is absolutely destructive. We need to understand that the Western players will be tough moderators of the decisions made by Armenian leaders. WE need to assure responsible and constructive behavior by Armenia.  

– What other spheres of bilateral cooperation could you emphasize? 

– First of all, this is the energy sector. It includes joint development and production of hydrocarbons at the Caspian continental shelf, their processing and transportation. I also believe the inter-regional cooperation of our two countries to be extremely important. It is progressing and Tatarstan is taking the lead here. And of course, cooperation in culture and humanities is extremely successful today. Everyone notices that. I believe we will be seeing new achievements in this sphere very soon. I would like to highlight such success stories as supporting Russian language in Azerbaijan, the forthcoming launch of Russian-Azerbaijanian University, various formats of cultural interaction. 

I believe that we should add people’s diplomacy to the above-listed areas. I envision that closer cooperation between the leading thinktanks of Azerbaijan – both government and non-government ones – in comprehending the current realities, mainly in the spheres of security and defense. Many processes are very rapid today, we observe dramatic changes in configuration, the ratio between resources and powers. Here, of course, experts will have more freedom in defining the potential risks and threats and in recommending mitigation measures. And further on, these recommendations may be translated into the decision-making of Russian and Azerbaijanian governments.