Modern Azerbaijan: factors of national success

Ilham Aliyev, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, made a speech at a hallmark event dedicated to the 30^th anniversary of the ruling party New Azerbaijan, which took place in the Heydar Aliyev Center. [1]  His keynote speech was dedicated to summarizing the state-building results, fixing the core values underpinning independent Azerbaijan, as well as setting the key objectives for the short-term historical perspective. At present, Azerbaijan is one of the most dynamically growing and efficient countries across the FSU area. It is irreversibly strengthening  in the spheres of politics, economy, demography and in the social sphere. Azerbaijan is especially successful in energy, defense and military sphere, and in the new infrastructure development.

Inside Azerbaijan the factor of continuity of power is believed to the foundation of such success, when the power is coming from Heydar Aliyev, the national leader having laid the principles of the state, to his son – the incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, who provided for fulfilment of the precepts of his father and brought the country to its current prosperity and recognition across the world. The expert community agrees with this evaluation and believes it is correct. It is important to analyze the experience of Azerbaijan based on Ilham Aliyev’s keynote speech in order to define the basis of the national success and strategic objectives of future sustainable development.

The great heritage of Heydar Aliyev

In the beginning of his speech, the President of Azerbaijan vividly described the crisis during the first year of national independence. He quite fairly noted that in November 1992 young Azerbaijan was undergoing difficult times. «There were no free media, the economy was in a very poor shape, the social standing of people was getting worse every year, poverty reached almost 90%, and the industry was paralyzed. The oil-and-gas sector being the leading industry of our economy was in decline, and the power generation sector was undergoing a serious crisis. There was no regular army, inflation was expressed in the three-digit values from two-digits», Ilham Aliyev reminded. [2] In essence, the young republic was on the edge of a precipice – the civil war, economic ruin and collapse, loss of nationhood.

At this difficult moment prominent representatives of Azerbaijan, patriots, people thinking about the future saw the way of recovering the country in the person of Heydar Aliyev and called on him. It was then that the first constituent conference of the New Azerbaijan Party was held in Nakhichevan, and soon this party became the leading political force. «The New Azerbaijan Party was created as an opposition party, so undertaking part of the load, some of the difficult problems of the state was a step, which required big commitment», Ilham Aliyev emphasized. In fact, the country turned out to be in the uncontrolled state, when the statehood principles were not established and the democratic development went extremely slowly. For the disappointed citizens the words «democracy» and «poverty» seemed synonymous. Courage and will, deep patriotism and insight were required to take the helm of the state ship to save it. This is what Heydar Aliyev, the nation-wide leader did.

The incumbent head of the state said in his speech: «The level of confidence in the society was very high». And we should say right away that Heydar Aliyev lived up to the expectations. Thanks to him, the reliable foundation of the Azerbaijan statehood was laid, the political institutes were formed on the right basis, and the foreign policy was respectively adjusted. «It was Heydar Aliyev who initiated the main steps determining the strategic course for our country. First of all, the Constitution was adopted. Imagine: before Heydar Aliyev came into power, Azerbaijan already was an independent state, but did not have a Constitution», Ilham Aliyev reminded. The experts note that adoption of the Constitution was an important historical event, which to a great extent pre-determined the successful course of the national development. In addition to the constitutional laws, many other judicial norms and rules were adopted including in the spheres of economic and civil law. In essence, during the period of staying in power Heydar Aliyev developed the constitutional and legal framework of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which has proven to be strong and extremely reliable.

Several serious comprehensive reforms were started under the leadership of Heydar Aliyev. The economy was re-oriented towards the market principles, the future of Azerbaijan as a secular state was determined. The full cycle was established in the oil industry, the manufacturing site for the off-shore oil producing platforms was built, the Officer Corps was developed and the foundations of the strong army were laid. In one of his interviews, Heydar Aliyev said that back in the Soviet years he provided for the economic prerequisites of independent Azerbaijan. «Did you really believe back in 1970s that the USSR will disintegrate? – Yes, I wanted Azerbaijan to be independent, first of all, from the standpoint of the economy. Because the economy is the basis of any sovereignty». [3] Indeed, strong economy and development of its key advantages is the main success factor of any accomplished country; and the oil-and-gas industry is such a factor for Azerbaijan, as well as rational use of natural resources is the driver for the nation-wide growth.

Summarizing the titanic accomplishments of his father, Ilham Aliyev noted that in 1993-2003 solid foundations of the national statehood were laid. The President called these years the period of stability and development and made the following important conclusion: «The measures undertaken in that time and the decisions made allow for us today to pursue the independent economic policy and to reinforce our global position as a sovereign state». Dozens of independent states emerge in the modern world and then sink into political obscurity, because only ver few of them can successfully gain a foothold as a recognized and successful actor. The analysts emphasize three main factors for such political success: a solid economic basis, a well-thought-out the longterm action plan, and the main thing – the consolidating and expiring figure of the national leader. The leader who is wise, strong and determined, a visionary committed to give all the forces for the prosperity of his country. Heydar Aliyev was such a great leader, the founding father of modern Azerbaijan.

Management of political will

Creation of new successful state is a great historical achievement, however, the main objective of the political circles of Azerbaijan was to continue the policy of Heydar Aliyev within the activity of the next generations. A solid state cannot be built overnight, its ambitious tasks and unresolved problems last much longer than the electoral terms and even physical existence of its founding fathers. The analysts note that all political regimes forming around the charismatic figure of the national leader are subject to one difficult problem – the problem of political transit. Often passing the power to the successor selected from the cronies or to the representative of the ruling party does not respond to the needs of the changing society, does not implement the expectations and hopes of the leader. It is enough to remember the political upheavals of the so-called «Asian tigers» – Malaysia and Singapore after the charismatic politicians M. Mahathir and Lee Kuan Yew left. Let us also remember the tragic story of Charles de Gaulle, the President of France, who was rejected by the young generation of the French voters. In the FSU area we were anxiously watching the recent tragic January events in Kazakhstan after Nursultan Nazarbayev, who at that time had the title of the Leader of the Nation, voluntarily quit power.

The huge political experience and the brilliant intellect of the National Leader of Azerbaijan manifested themselves in the fact, that Heydar Aliyev was one of the first politicians in the FSU area to understand the essence of this problem and started nurturing his successor in advance. He sent his sixteen-year-old son Ilham Aliyev to Moscow to one of the best universities – the Moscow State Institute for International Relations. After receiving the profession of a diplomat, Ilham Aliyev gradually worked at a number of very high positions acquiring the necessary practical experience of a politician and a manager diving deep into the routine of government and successfully resolving new global tasks. In his political will Heydar Aliyev noted that «great work has been done, but things we could not do will be done by my successors». In 2003, practically the entire nation of Azerbaijan voted for the new President – Ilham Aliyev, and that was the vote in favor of continuation of Heydar Aliyev’s policy. This is what the incumbent President of Azerbaijan said on this issue: «In 2003, I promised to the nation that I will not deviate from this path. The events of the recent 19 years showed that this is what happened exactly: all the assignments, all the recommendations of the great leader were fulfilled».

The development of strong national economy was the first priority in the political will of Heydar Aliyev. Ilham Aliyev fairly noted in his speech that «only economic power, economic independence are the basis for the activities in all the other spheres». This is absolutely correct goal-setting, because strong economy is a solid foundation for the true, not just declared sovereignty. The countries economically dependent on other, more powerful economies or on the international financial institutions will always be facing difficulties in their attempts to implement independent policy. The people of Azerbaijan were always striving for the domestic and foreign policies reflecting the common goals of the nation, not just someone’s will. Because all these years the people of Azerbaijan invested their efforts into developing the industry and agriculture, into enhancing the economic reforms. This is how President Ilham Aliyev summarized the results of this painstaking work: «It is enough to say that starting from 2003 until today our economy more than tripled. This year it will achieve the record-high level». The successful fiscal and economic policy the external public debt has been reduced significantly – down to 10% of GDP. As of today, the foreign currency reserves of Azerbaijan are 8 times exceeding the external debt. This created great advantages for the current and the next generations.

The second priority in the political will of Heydar Aliyev was strengthening the united Azerbaijan state on the basis of national spiritual values. Ilham Aliyev stated: «All the peoples of Azerbaijan are now living as one family, and this also was the policy of the great national leader». The incumbent President successfully continued the wise policy of his great father. International experts say that a unique and unprecedented environment of solidarity and fraternity has been cultivated in Azerbaijan. The citizens of Azerbaijan dramatically displayed these special features of a united political nation during the Second Karabakh War. «Representatives of all the nations living in the territory of Azerbaijan unanimously were ready to face the death, were raising our flag in the de-occupied territories», Ilham Aliyev stated. It is important that the entire nation, all the ethnic groups of Azerbaijan support this policy.

The third priority in the political will of Heydar Aliyev was building a strong army and the final settlement of the Karabakh issue. President Ilham Aliyev reminded that «occupation of Shusha and Lachin in May 1992 was a huge tragedy both from the moral standpoint, and from the military strategic point of view. Because it resulted in establishing the geographical link between Armenia and the territory called at that time «the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region». After Heydar Aliyev came into power, big and meticulous work to build the new army started, and it was finished already in the time of Ilham Aliyev’s presidency by creating one of the most modern and capable army in the FSU area. «That is why for me the essence of our work was in liberating Karabakh and putting the historical record straight. We were consistently making it happen, and our way was rather lengthy. But we had to go along to put a period, to fix it once and for all», Ilham Aliyev stated at the Party convent. When the nation and the power clinched together, it took only 44 days for Azerbaijan to reinstate the historical justice forcing Armenia to recognize its defeat and lay down the arms.

The key priorities for the government

The unbiassed analysis of Ilham Aliyev’s speech at the 30^th anniversary of the New Azerbaijan Party reveals a number of important factor of Azerbaijan’s success. The first one is continuity of power and the optimal political model.  As we indicated earlier, the evolvement of a successful state is associated with the tasks and issues, the duration of which exceeds not only the electoral terms, but even the physical existence of the politicians. People building solid states think in ages, not in short-lived PR-campaigns or in five-year plans traditional for the USSR. The dynastic form of power transfer allows for solving several problems simultaneously.

Firstly, this is «hand to hand» passing the entire possession of the state as a consolidated political property for preserving and augmentation. This allows for the supreme authority to stage-manage the successor in advance avoiding the intrigues and upheavals when transferring the power and the embezzlement of the national wealth, to preserve political and economic stability.

Secondly, it provides for an essentially different scope of thinking. Opportunities arise for implementing long-term projects requiring investment of efforts of not just one, but several generations. History gives us many examples of building magnificent architectural masterpieces and colossal infrastructure facilities – bridges, roads, and fortresses, which were initiated in the times of one ruler and were completed in the times of others.

Thirdly, this allows for consolidation of elites into a united political corporation consisting of public servants’ dynasties, which can faithfully work for the benefit of their Motherland for a long time. This is unthinkable in the conditions of short-lived turnover of human resources during the election campaigns and on-going political crises typical for the so-called «electoral democracies». All this is also impossible when the state is managed by partisan or bureaucratic machines, which are gradually degrading and lead the country either to a complete ruination, or to collapse resulting from political or military crises. The Azerbaijan model of power transition created by the great leader Heydar Aliyev allowed for successful avoidance of the mistakes of the neighboring FSU countries and for practical proof of its historical superiority and validity.

Another important factor is precise evaluation of the pressing needs of the country ad concentration of efforts on the priority vectors for resolving the most important problems. In his speech, President Ilham Aliyev provided the examples of major successful oil-and-gas projects launched back in the middle of 1990s on the initiative of Heydar Aliyev. For example, Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan pipeline brought independent Azerbaijan to the group of the leading global players in the hydrocarbons market. Further projects implemented during the time of Ilham Aliyev significantly expanded the capabilities of the country. Today, Azerbaijan is a reliable and efficient partner for many countries including Russia, Turkey and the European Union. The well-thought-out policy of Azerbaijan in the energy sphere noticeably enhanced the economy and the security of the country. This allowed to channel the super profit received from exporting the hydrocarbons to implementing social programs, developing new infrastructure and strengthening the defense capacity. «Of course, our advantage is in having natural resources. However, there are many countries with bigger resources, but are all of them rationally using their wealth? Of course, not», Ilham Aliyev stated. It is difficult to argue with this, because to the contrary of some other energy powers the oil-and-gas revenues in Azerbaijan were used to fund the priority areas of national development.

Another factor is the correct choice of the long-term development vectors and forming the image of the successful future. «The processes going on across the world show that energy security is one of the key security factors», Ilham Aliyev emphasized. That is why the new oil-and-gas projects will stay among the priorities of the national development, and the new transit routes will complement them strengthening the international positions of Baku. «Because today the transportation and energy infrastructure of Azerbaijan is very important for many other countries, especially in the current environment», the head of the state concluded. Eventually, we are observing an effective synchronization of all the important projects of Azerbaijan. The successful projects in the oil-and-gas sector provided the funding for creating a strong army with the most modern weapons. The new army was successful to liberating the occupied territories, and the near future it will allow for implementing the strategically important Zangezur corridor project. In its turn, the future transit connection of Azerbaijan and Turkey will significantly enhance the geopolitical and economic capabilities of the country and will give a new impetus for major projects in the sphere of energy and logistics in the Caspian Region.

As we can see, in Azerbaijan one major project is closely connected with another one, and there are no redundant or poor decisions. Altogether they work for the common national success and provide synergy solutions for many problems of the country, and eventually all the projects are focused on future growth and development. «Continuing and developing Heydar Aliyev’s political course, we succeeded in building strong Azerbaijan, which every citizen is proud of», the President stated. Hence, each new project of Ilham Aliyev as a successful successor and continuator of his father’s course more and more consolidates the national interests and results in the growing number of Azerbaijan’s friends, partners and allies on different continents. The remarkable victory of Baku in the Second Karabakh War was, of course, a critical point consolidating the Azerbaijan nation and bringing Azerbaijan to the leaders of the modern global community. The new image of Azerbaijan as a winner has been formed. In his speech, President Ilham Aliyev clearly emphasized that: «Today, not only the citizens of Azerbaijan, but the Azeris all over the world are walking with heads up high. We are the victorious nation, the victorious state, and this will remain forever».

The results and outlook

The keynote speech of the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev at the anniversary of the ruling party New Azerbaijan is a bright example of a remarkable political speech. In the concentrated form is describes the sequence of the main events and achievements of independent Azerbaijan for the past 30 years. The head of the state made very precise conceptual emphasis in the course of the modern history of the country. He marked the most important milestones and the key decisions, and he also openly explained the main reasons of the decision-making. Ilham Aliyev’s speech for his comrades in the New Azerbaijan party is not a formalistic and emotionless report, but a bright and confident presentation in front of his associates focused on the future. It shows the close relations between the head of the state and the political establishment. It also demonstrates the high degree of understanding of strategic tasks and prospects of the country, the solid consolidation of the society around Ilham Aliyev, who is one of top political and state leaders of the modern world.

The speech of the President of Azerbaijan summarized the results of the titanic 30-year efforts of two outstanding leaders – Heydar Aliyev and Ilham Aliyev. He made it abundantly clear for the country and the entire world what great success may be achieved if the efforts of the government and the society are consolidated in one single fist. The achievements of independent Azerbaijan are especially illustrative in strengthening its position in the global arena. In 2019, 120 countries unanimously elected Azerbaijan as the Chair country of the Nonaligned Movement – the second biggest organization in the world after the UN in terms of its importance and influence. All this proves the high level of respect towards Azerbaijan due to successful activities of two great leaders – the father and the son Aliyevs.

There are all the grounds to believe that the success of victorious Azerbaijan will be the magnificent guiding light for many neighboring countries. The remarkable experience of Azerbaijan in building a successful state practically from scratch, of course, needs to be subject to detailed study and systematization. The people of Azerbaijan guided by Heydar Aliyev and Ilham Aliyev demonstrated great dedication, mass heroism and high professionalism over the past three decades providing an example and valuable experience for many nations.