Overthrow of Assad: Russian experts predict political vacuum and fragmentation risks

Russian experts shared their opinions about the implications of the overthrow of Assad’s regime and its effects for Syria and international politics, as well as about potential scenarios for the nation with 1news.Az.

Igor Korotchenko, the General Director of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies (Russia):

«The collapse of power took place in Syria leading to the destruction of practically all the structures controlled by Bashar Assad and to the opposition seizing power through an armed revolt. Today we are observing the situation when the Syrian state system is de-facto jeopardized. This is connected with a number of factors.

First of all, the USA maintain their control over a part of the Syrian territories and support their proxies mainly in the oil-producing provinces. Judging by the statements of certain Washington officials, the USA do not intend to leave Syrian regions. Moreover, they warned they would attack any forces attempting to change the status-quo in the territories controlled by the USA.

Israel is the second player taking the advantage of Syria getting weaker and of the effective dissolution of its regular army, who introduced Israelian ground forces. As a result, Israel is fully in control of the Golan Heights and has significantly made headway seizing a big part of the adjacent territories on the Syrian side. Judging by the statements of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, these territories will now be qualified as the zone of Israelian interests, and in future may become part of the sovereign territory of Israel.

These are the factors determining the current status of Syria. On top of that, it should be noted that the pro-Turkish forces are also receiving direct military and political support from Ankara.

The remaining part of the Syrian territory, the fourth one, is controlled by the militant opposition. By all appearances, we can no longer talk about a united Syrian state. Most likely, it will resemble the model of Iraq, where formal centralized power structures exist, but there are territories de-facto beyond the control of Damascus. Those will be the regions controlled by external forces, such as Turkey and the USA. And of course, there will be a part seized by Israel», – the expert said.

He believes the main threat associated with the events taking place in Syria is that its territory may turn into a breeding ground of international terrorism exporting it to other countries of the world.

«This is a negative scenario. At the same time, taking into account the fact that the militant opposition is now the official government of Syria, there is a chance for Russia to start building reasonable and constructive relations with these forces subject to them not being hostile to the interests of our country», – the expert emphasized.

«Will this be implemented and what will be the configuration/balance of forces and resources, what will be the status of two Russian military bases in Hemeimeem (the air force base) and Tartous (the naval base)? We do not know the answers to these questions yet. The dynamics of the on-going events are too fast, and it looks like the next several weeks will determine the future situation.

In any case, Russia will stay an influential player in the Middle East, we have stable partner relations with a number of countries in the region.

Russia maintains stable relations with such states as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt. In this context, the voice of the Russian Federation and its position will be affecting the current geopolitical situation. On top of that, we should not forget that practically all the relatively well-doing (from the political and economic standpoints) countries of the Gulf are actively diversifying their geopolitical and political contacts. That is why reliance of Russia to balance their relations with the Western power centers will remain an important element of the regional politics in the Middle East and the key regional countries will continue to adhere to it.

Hence, Russia remains an influential player, and its influence will stay; however, re-formatting some of the vectors of Russian politics will depend on the developments of the situation in Syria», – Korotchenko claimed.

According to the expert’s opinion, the practical implication of the events in Syria will be the refusal of Western countries to accept refugees from Syria.

«The ones who have not received the relevant legal status will be deported from the EU member states back to their region despite any possible protests. However, in the practical sense, the CIS countries should be attentive to any attempts of the Western power centers to export Islamist extremists from Syria to the CIS area. It specifically relates to terrorists of representatives of the militant opposition coming from the post-Soviet states, no matter how we call them.

This is the main threat now. Sergey Naryshkin, the Head of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia, claimed that in his interview emphasizing that the forthcoming efforts of American and British secret services will be targeted at destabilizing the situation in the FSU area. Such conclusions were also voiced at the recent forum of the heads of secret services and foreign intelligence units of the CIS member states, where Alexander Bortnikov, the Director of the Federal Security Service of Russia, presented a similar statement», – he said.

According to the political analyst, the threat of extremists and terrorists penetrating into the FSU area from the Middle East, and Syria in particular, to further destabilize the situation is the main threat today for the entire Commonwealth of Independent States.

«It is important to improve coordination and data exchange between the special services and security agencies to efficiently counteract the scenarios, which may be conceived in the Western decision-making centers», – the expert emphasized.

As for forming the centralized Syrian government within the new legal framework, we can see that some former ministers of Bashar Assad stayed in Damascus.

«Obviously, the new transitional government will be formed. In any case, it is important to welcome the dialogue between the former authorities in Damascus, which are no longer legitimate, and the new political forces including the militant opposition de-facto executing the coercive powers. We need to understand that Syria is a region with the dented economy, and significant efforts will be required to reinstate peace and stability, to launch the sustainable development model.

If Syria does not want to turn into new Afghanistan, all the participants of the conflict will have to achieve certain mutual agreements in one way or another. To which extent these agreements will be realistic, and whether such model of political future will be stable – it is difficult to predict. Obviously, we will see quite a few dramatic events before the future is clear for Syria and before we understand what format of power will be implemented by those who are currently representing this power with weapons in their hands», – Igor Korotchenko concluded.